Highlights: The results of Poland’s parliamentary elections held on Oct. 15, 2023, have been lauded as a blow against populism – and they may also hold important lessons for reversing democracy’s decline.

In the vote, the conservative and increasingly autocratic Law and Justice Party (PiS), which has ruled since 2015, still received the largest number of seats (35%) in Poland’s Sejm, the more powerful lower house of parliament.

But it was not enough to form a majority. Instead, it looks likely that the progressive Civic Platform will join forces with the Third Wave and New Left, which together received 54% of the votes.

The PiS government used the elections as an opportunity to simultaneously hold a national referendum, asking voters to answer questions about migrants, border walls, the retirement age and the selling off of state assets – issues known to be unifying for its supporters.

PiS also used public media to criticize the opposition. State TV, newspapers and social media – which critics say has, over the preceding eight years, stopped being pluralistic and independent – consistently misrepresented facts and attacked the opposition, often with outlandish allegations. In addition, exploitation of state-owned companies and public funds gave PiS a “clear advantage” going into the polls.

Here are five factors that contributed to the Polish election result – and could have implications for other countries faced with democratic backsliding.

  1. Voters showed up

Poles took the elections seriously. With almost three-quarters of the electorate voting (74%), the turnout was unprecedented in recent times. It was even higher than the first free elections after the fall of communism in 1989. In fact, this was the highest voter turnout since 1919, a year after Poland emerged as an independent country.

  1. Women mobilized

For the first time in Poland’s history, more women than men voted. Almost 75% of eligible women voted – a 12% increase over 2019. In comparison, 73% of eligible male voters cast a ballot.

The election also saw a record number of female candidates (44%) and the largest percentage of women (30%) voted into Poland’s Sejm.

The growth in the women’s vote follows a period of increased feminist activism in Poland.

  1. Young people mobilized

Young Poles also participated in elections in record numbers, demonstrating that while young people might be seen to be dissatisfied with democracy, many of them still show up to vote. Among voters under 29 years of age, 69% turned out compared with 46% in the previous elections in 2019 – a 22% increase. In fact, more people under 29 voted than people over 60.

  1. The role of civil society

The number of civil society organizations is only one way to gauge the strength of civil society. PiS worked to shrink the space for civil society activism by reducing funding to certain organizations, resulting in a decline in the number of groups.

But, as I explore in my research, such efforts simultaneously pushed activism online and fueled political and social engagement in other ways that are often harder to see.

  1. The economy matters

Much of PiS’ tenure in government has coincided with significant economic growth in Poland. This allowed the government to provide monthly stipends for families to reduce child poverty, restructure the tax system to benefit the poor, and invest in rural Poland.

Yet earlier in 2023, Poland’s inflation was over 18%. With prices for food up by 24% and costs for housing, gas and electricity up by 22%, Poles – especially those on fixed incomes, many of whom were PiS voters – were unable to pay their bills.

By my count I used about half the words from the actual article, in case a mod is curious

  • P1r4nha@feddit.de
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    33
    ·
    1 year ago

    It’s why Republicans want women to marry quickly and early. Single women are a huge demography that is not voting for them… I doubt just getting married is actually solving this for Republicans though.

  • beatensoup@baraza.africa
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    12
    ·
    1 year ago

    Interesting.

    OP, do you have the numbers on how men’s vote changed relative to 2019? From the article, 75% of women voted v 73% of men voted. This reflected a 12% increase for women but didn’t go into percentages for men.

    • jeffw@lemmy.worldOP
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      15
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      1 year ago

      No I just copy and paste stuff from news outlets lol. I don’t know much about Polish politics myself

    • MustrumR@kbin.social
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      5
      ·
      1 year ago

      Based on Exit Poll of TVN24 from that time (so not an official gov statistics, I’m not sure if they can release any) in 2019 60.8% of men voted. 61.5% of women.

      • uis@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        1
        ·
        1 year ago

        Isn’t such stats what electoral comission or whatever you call it has?

  • stella
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    9
    ·
    1 year ago

    There’s been a lot of theory around the idea that women have been the driving force for change since the 20th century.

  • randon31415@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    9
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    1 year ago

    Which women think abortion access is important? Those that having a baby would financially ruin them. Which women think abortion should be illegal? Those past menopause. Though there are exceptions both ways, this is the general trend.

  • assassin_aragorn@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    6
    ·
    1 year ago

    Good thing the Republican Party hasn’t pissed off – lmao I can’t even say it. If this can be replicated in the US, Republicans should just start retiring now.

    • stella
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      2
      ·
      1 year ago

      Eh. I think women in the US subscribe way more to the ‘city vs. country’ divide that shapes their politics.

      It’s very tribal here, and most people are proud of it.

  • poopkins@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    5
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    1 year ago

    Foolish of PiS to have forgotten to marginalize this demographic. They’ve successfully been restricting absentee voting and voting from abroad, did they just forget about similar tactics for excluding young females?

  • uis@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    2
    ·
    1 year ago

    Law and Justice? Sounds like Putin’s shills. Congrats, Poles! Thank you.

  • scarabic@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    7
    arrow-down
    35
    ·
    1 year ago

    Interesting how populism has become a bad thing. I guess it’s because the common people love to be hoodwinked by strong men.

    The Roman senate argued relentlessly that common people would drive the republic to ruin. And I guess they had a point.

    • PugJesus@kbin.social
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      37
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      1 year ago

      The Roman Senate was a bunch of ultrawealthy oligarchs who literally murdered democratic reformers. I don’t know that I would put much stock in their opinions on the ‘common people’.

      • scarabic@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        1
        arrow-down
        2
        ·
        1 year ago

        Having survived Donald Trump and Jan 6, I look at their opinions in a new light.

          • scarabic@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            1
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            1 year ago

            Because Donald Trump rode to the white house on a wave of populism. Is this hard to figure out?

            • PugJesus@kbin.social
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              3
              arrow-down
              1
              ·
              1 year ago

              And massive support from oligarchs. The idea that the hoi polloi are somehow more gullible, greedy, or vicious than the elite is… not generally backed by evidence.

              • scarabic@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                1 year ago

                I said hoodwinked by strongmen. I would say oligarch manipulation counts.

                Show me when the elite have voted against their own interests like Republican voters have been doing?

    • Michal@programming.dev
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      4
      ·
      1 year ago

      Average person can be manipulated. That’s why independent media is important. Pis got a hold over TVP and used it to stay in power.