The National Bureau of Statistics said the total number of people in China dropped by 2.08 million, or 0.15%, to 1.409 billion in 2023.
That was well above the population decline of 850,000 in 2022, which had been the first since 1961 during the Great Famine of the Mao Zedong era.
These kind of ‘record low’ headlines are almost inevitable for the next few years: not only is the fertility declining (that might change), but if you look at a population pyramid you can see that number in the 25-35 age group (potential parents) is set to decline rapidly. Models suggest that, unless there’s a big change, the total population of China could drop to half its peak by the end of the century.
You know, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing - if it weren’t for this world’s many systemic issues. But for a country to “succeed”, you need them babies.
Problem is, and this is more about social anthropology, is that the poorer you are, the more kids you will have - statistically speaking.
I wonder what say the birthrate is in Russia, where some republics and oblasts lack basic infrastructure, similar to poverty stricken countries in Africa. Can you manufacture poverty and get baby machines out of it, like some twisted “win-win”?
The thought scares the shit out of me, ngl.
Both Russia and Ukraine have dire demographic outlooks and their pyramids show waves due to previous calamities, but indeed the political rhetoric in Russia is ‘make more babies’, also a reason to steal kids from Ukraine. Regarding the long term, there is indeed a correlation poverty - fertility but that doesn’t imply causality - other related factors such as urban / rural and education can be more relevant (kids need a lot of space and time). However iirc the earliest models such as limits to growth did show a long-term oscillation due to the feedback you suggest.
