Hell, look at the Euromaidan protests. The western powers had no clue at all that the protests would actually accomplish anything, let alone forcing the Russian puppet Viktor Yanukovych out of power.

Which was then used by Russia as justification to invade Crimea and the Eastern regions of Ukraine.

That second part was not as much of a surprise, given Russia’s recent history of invading its neighbors’ border regions… But it was still a step further than should have been allowed.

Then the full invasion of Ukraine, that one was not much of a surprise. The fact that Russian body armor turned out to be mostly made of plastic and cardboard was a surprise, but again, it shouldn’t have been.

.