The conventional wisdom, well captured recently by Ethan Mollick, is that LLMs are advancing exponentially. A few days ago, in very popular blog post, Mollick claimed that “the current best estimates of the rate of improvement in Large Language models show capabilities doubling every 5 to 14 months”:
    • El Barto
      2•1 month ago

      I guess ChatGPT 4 has wised up. I’m curious now. Will try it.

      Edit: Yup, you’re right. It says “bro, you cray cray.” But if I tell it that it’s a recent math model, then it will say “Well, I guess in that model it’s 7, but that’s not standard.”