Exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian shows 55% believe economy is shrinking, in troubling sign for president’s re-election bid

Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.

The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:

  • 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.

  • 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.

  • 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.

  • Nimrod
    21·
    25 days ago

    Thank you for the sources. Some comments:

    1. I don’t think a narrowing of the income inequality between races is the same as a generalized reduction in income inequality across a whole nation. Yes it probably contributes, but it doesn’t tell the story.
    2. your article on GINI tells the exact opposite story that you’re saying here. The headline says it all: pre-tax income inequality has fallen slightly (1.2% or so) but after people pay taxes, the income inequality actually ROSE!! Easily demonstrating the regressive nature of the tax structure. The article mentions some expiring tax breaks for low income households.
    • mozz@mbin.grits.dev
      74·
      25 days ago

      don’t think a narrowing of the income inequality between races is the same as a generalized reduction in income inequality

      Yeah, fair. The racial breakdown was just the first thing I found and I thought it was a good stand-in for breakdown by income levels. I just looked, and managed to find more of exactly what I was looking for – a chart explicitly broken down by income level. It shows a huge boost in income for the bottom half of Americans.

      your article on GINI tells the exact opposite story that you’re saying here. The headline says it all: pre-tax income inequality has fallen slightly (1.2% or so) but after people pay taxes, the income inequality actually ROSE!! Easily demonstrating the regressive nature of the tax structure.

      Well, but that’s not Biden’s fault, is it? He came in with some monster economic problems, and they ate up some of the gains of the good things he was able to do, and this is another example. To me. I don’t really know enough of the details of how the tax credits work to say that for sure, though, that’s just sort of my first interpretation.

      • Nimrod
        121·
        25 days ago

        Nice, I like that Time article better. It reinforces the GINI articles analysis: middle class folks wages didn’t go up with lower class wages. I think that’s sorta a good thing? Ideally the top 10% would not grow, but the bottom 90% would. But help getting to the bottom 50% is definitely not a bad thing.

        Also, I never said the income inequality growth is Biden’s fault. But more that it’s the reason all these articles about how good the “economy” is doing might not be seen in the same light by people who are still struggling.

        We can do better, and I think closing that gap is everyone’s goal, but the methods to achieve it can vary wildly.

        • mozz@mbin.grits.dev
          61·
          25 days ago

          It’s the reason all these articles about how good the “economy” is doing might not be seen in the same light by people who are still struggling.

          Yeah, makes sense. I do understand how “naw you’re wrong the economy’s actually getting better yay Biden” could lead to a pretty violently disagreeable reaction.

          • SupahRevs@lemmy.world
            2·
            24 days ago

            Because the truth is that people have always been poor in America. We are just more advertised to than ever before and feel like we are temporarily embarrassed millionaires. There have been decades of romanticizing individual success with less emphasis on systems and social contract. There was an attack on unions. We had a shift from a war on poverty to a war on welfare. These decades long decisions will take a lot of time to change but Biden is starting. He can’t say that the America we grew up in was a bad deal so he has to stay positive yet tactful in continuing to support unions, education funding, housing programs, childcare, healthcare, and so many things that we should have as an advanced economy.

        • SupahRevs@lemmy.world
          1·
          24 days ago

          And the efforts will take time. Maybe a generation. We’ve had right wing economic environment since Reagan and are slowly shifting back to pro-labor and pro-union environment with Biden. If we lose the momentum from the past 4 years we will certainly be worse off. I would encourage everyone to read history of labor movements in the US. They take years, decades even. But they do have lasting impacts that we often take for granted, like safer working conditions, days off, reduced child labor practices… I know it sucks for things to be more expensive right now, especially with corporate profits at all time highs, but throwing away this progress would be a huge loss for all workers in America.

          • Nimrod
            1·
            24 days ago

            Agreed. Changes this large for society will always take time. That’s why it’s important to not burn yourself out on one issue, or one fight. You gotta buckle in the for the long run. But keep fighting for change in a way that allows you to keep fighting. I feel guilty sometimes for not getting more involved in issues or causes that I think need support, but I have to remind myself that no one person can fight every battle. Forgive yourself from time to time for “not doing enough”. So long as you keep coming back to the table when your pace allows it.

      • Psychodelic@lemmy.world
        3·
        25 days ago

        Isn’t that just showing an increase in income that’s like a tiny percentage? Didn’t that “raise” come during a period when inflation increased significantly and cancelled it all out?

        Honestly, it’s super annoying that you replied all defensive as if anyone was attacking Biden. It’s hard to take anything you say seriously now. I’m voting for the piece of shit but it seems insane to pretend he’s actually trying to help poor Americans at the expense of corporations and their shareholders.

        There’s an ongoing class war and there’s bipartisan support for the rich in all three branches of gov.

        • mozz@mbin.grits.dev
          13·
          25 days ago

          Those are already inflation adjusted dollars - gains on the chart represent gains above inflation. The source is here with more explanation, and looking over it actually will show some important / upsetting caveats to what I said - just bear in mind that for some confusing reason, it is showing percentage change in a lot of its charts, instead of the raw underlying number.

          And yeah I get that - I feel like I am becoming humorless and just yelling at people all the time good things about Biden. My feeling on it is more or less, why are you guys making me stick up for the Democrats I don’t even particularly like them. But it seems to me like people are spreading very specific malicious bullshit about them in this election, which is upsetting to me (because of the “bullshit” part and its potential impact on the US and the world if it swings the election, not because of the “Biden” part, if that makes sense).