Silver’s model showed Harris having a better chance of winning the election between August 4 and August 27, although Trump’s chances have been on the rise for a week. Last Wednesday, Harris and Trump’s forecasts were relatively tied at 50.5 percent to 49.2 percent, respectively.

This week’s forecast gives Trump his greatest chance of winning reelection since Silver’s model was launched on July 30, when he was given a 61.3 percent chance. At that time, Harris had a 38.1 percent chance of victory.