Speaking Realpolitik: Currently, nothing is going to change Israel’s approach. They already are practically cut off from German arms productions (still able to get replacement parts for radar systems, air defence, such stuff), they could be cut off from US military support and be sanctioned and still continue. It wouldn’t make more Israelis demonstrate on the streets, there’s already plenty of those, it won’t make the Kahanites become any less genocidal.
…and what I just slipped in implicitly there is that the German government, as in at least the ministerial level, does consider the Gaza erm situation a genocide. At least a potential one. Because otherwise the export licenses would match the defence attorney tone before the ICJ, which it doesn’t. (“Your honour, it is true that my client commits plenty of war crimes but genocide, no, genocide requires intent and… shuffles papers intent cannot be established without a sound mind and they are acting out of PTSD, to wit, we caused it. My client pleads temporary insanity”). It also doesn’t get said openly, again Realpolitik: It wouldn’t change anything on the ground and have potentially negative effects when it comes to Germany’s ties into Israeli civil society. And, of course, if Scholz is good at anything then it’s at sitting things out.
It sucks but the whole thing will have to play out. It may even end in an Israeli civil war, what’s certain is that there’s going to be a hell of a hangover. The US could have stopped the whole thing, but that would’ve required a) quick thinking directly after the October attacks and b) a better understanding of Israel than the US has. The US would have had to dock that aircraft carrier they sent to Israel, unloaded a battalion of marines, and go Hamas-hunting themselves. Side-line the IDF, keep an eye on them, witness directly what’s happening.
As to compromises: Why the hell are we talking about this the next EU elections are when, 2029. Both parties are going to be basically irrelevant on a member state level, maybe some municipal or even state seats but that’s it. Effectively this is some BSW-level “let’s make state elections about federal politics” shit, why didn’t Wagenknecht talk about brand-new state-owned ore mines to create new jobs for all those coal miners. About expropriating means of production. About fixing green fuckups by investing in district heating. Stuff, you know, state governments actually have the power to do.
Speaking Realpolitik: Currently, nothing is going to change Israel’s approach. They already are practically cut off from German arms productions (still able to get replacement parts for radar systems, air defence, such stuff), they could be cut off from US military support and be sanctioned and still continue. It wouldn’t make more Israelis demonstrate on the streets, there’s already plenty of those, it won’t make the Kahanites become any less genocidal.
…and what I just slipped in implicitly there is that the German government, as in at least the ministerial level, does consider the Gaza erm situation a genocide. At least a potential one. Because otherwise the export licenses would match the defence attorney tone before the ICJ, which it doesn’t. (“Your honour, it is true that my client commits plenty of war crimes but genocide, no, genocide requires intent and… shuffles papers intent cannot be established without a sound mind and they are acting out of PTSD, to wit, we caused it. My client pleads temporary insanity”). It also doesn’t get said openly, again Realpolitik: It wouldn’t change anything on the ground and have potentially negative effects when it comes to Germany’s ties into Israeli civil society. And, of course, if Scholz is good at anything then it’s at sitting things out.
It sucks but the whole thing will have to play out. It may even end in an Israeli civil war, what’s certain is that there’s going to be a hell of a hangover. The US could have stopped the whole thing, but that would’ve required a) quick thinking directly after the October attacks and b) a better understanding of Israel than the US has. The US would have had to dock that aircraft carrier they sent to Israel, unloaded a battalion of marines, and go Hamas-hunting themselves. Side-line the IDF, keep an eye on them, witness directly what’s happening.
As to compromises: Why the hell are we talking about this the next EU elections are when, 2029. Both parties are going to be basically irrelevant on a member state level, maybe some municipal or even state seats but that’s it. Effectively this is some BSW-level “let’s make state elections about federal politics” shit, why didn’t Wagenknecht talk about brand-new state-owned ore mines to create new jobs for all those coal miners. About expropriating means of production. About fixing green fuckups by investing in district heating. Stuff, you know, state governments actually have the power to do.