• TheKingBombOmbKiller
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    4 months ago

    Here is a direct quote from 538:

    538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

    Source

    In 2016 they gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4 % chance of winning, and in 2020 they gave Joe Biden 89 % chance of winning. They are dealing in odds, not calls.

    And even if it isn’t getting through to you, how were they wrong in 2020?

    • WrenFeathers@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      So based on their record over the past two years, it’s safe to say that whoever they assume to have the best odds of winning- it’s still going to be a whoever wins, wins.

      My point is… they’re not accurate.

      • TheKingBombOmbKiller
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        4 months ago

        What would accurate odds in the previous two presidential elections look like to you?

        • WrenFeathers@lemmy.world
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          4 months ago

          Voting is the only accurate means to determine a president. This bullshit with odds and predictions muddies the water.