Climate change is relentless and largely predictable, but it is influenced by natural variability. This means the largest temperature rise usually comes at the end of an El Niño event.

We can expect 2023 to emerge as the warmest year to date. But sea-surface temperatures during El Niño events tend to peak about December and have the greatest influences in the subsequent two months. That sets the stage for 2024 jumping up the staircase to the next level, perhaps to 1.4℃ above pre-industrial levels, with likely daily incursions over 1.5℃.

Once the next La Niña event comes along, there’ll again be a pause in the rise, but values will never quite go back to previous levels.