There’s zero chance he lasts more than a month. If he does what the hardliners want and shuts down the government, the purple district Republicans or possibly even the majority of the party will make a deal with Democrats and remove him as speaker. If he allows a moderate budget to make it to Biden, the hardliners will McCarthy him. The hardliners are so unreasonable that they’ll probably get less of the policies they want than if they kept their months shut and voted with the party. However, they don’t give a shit about policy. Thanks to Trump’s support, they can threaten to sink Republicans willing to compromise in the primary, theoretically pressuring everyone to be totally loyal to Trump, even if his ideas hurt their popularity.