CNN Polls: Trump leads Biden in Michigan and Georgia as broad majorities hold negative views of the current president | CNN Politics
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Former President Donald Trump has the upper hand over President Joe Biden in two critical battleground states – Michigan and Georgia – with broad majorities in both states holding negative views of the sitting president’s job performance, policy positions and sharpness, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.

This is one to watch as opposed to all those nonsense national polls talking about which person is ahead or behind, we don’t have a national election, we have 50 state elections.

In 2020 Biden won 306 to 232 Electoral College votes.

If he maintains all other states, but loses Georgia and Michigan, that would put him at 274, President by 4 votes.

I know, I know, “a win is a win”, but when you consider the minimum number of EC votes per state is 3, winning by 4 is not a lot of wiggle room. Pretty much any other flippable state would throw it to Trump.

So, yeah, forget the national polls.

Watch Georgia:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

Watch Michigan:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

If those two fall, it takes +1. Pennsylvania? Wisconsin? Nevada? Arizona? New Mexico?

  • cerevantEnglish
    212·
    11 months ago

    No one is leading or trailing, because no one has voted.

    Polls are not even a little bit predictive this far out.

    Polls contain no actionable data for voters unless they are looking days before the election and want to strategically vote in a race with more than 2 candidates.

    • KevonLooney
      4·
      11 months ago

      This far out (end of 2015), Republicans thought Hillary was a shoe-in.

    • GodlessCommie@lemmy.worldEnglish
      816·
      11 months ago

      No incumbent thats polling as low as Biden is right now, at this time in their presidency, has ever won reeelection

      • CaptainSpaceman@lemmy.world
        91·
        11 months ago

        Your response to a comment about polls being meaningless is to use “bUt mUh PoLlS!!!” logic to make an inference

        Let that sink in for a second.

        • BigWheelPowerBrakeSlider@lemmy.world
          2·
          11 months ago

          Op made a point that polls have no predictive value at this point. The responder posited that no president polling this low at this point has ever won. Why is the response not valid or not adding to the conversation?

      • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
        52·
        11 months ago

        What’s crazy is since only weak candidates get primaries, people act like a primary hurts incumbents.

        This could all be fixed by Biden stepping aside, but he’d rather risk the whole country than do that

        • GodlessCommie@lemmy.worldEnglish
          34·
          11 months ago

          If he was able to stand on his record a primary wouldn’t hurt them because people could see the results. Refusing a primary on an unpopular candidate is simple arrogance and ego. Biden needs to go

        • jordanlund@lemmy.worldOPM
          23·
          11 months ago

          The DNC would rather risk the whole country than do that.

          If the DNC told him “You’re too old, you can’t win, step aside”, he likely would.

      • PugJesus@kbin.social
        2·
        11 months ago

        Red fascists try not to jerk off to the thought of ordinary fascists taking power challenge (NEVER BEEN DONE)

      • Telorand@reddthat.com
        2·
        11 months ago

        Remember GW Bush? All it takes is one event to flip public sentiment. This poll is garbage for anyone who isn’t a political scientist or a campaign strategist.