Don’t get me wrong, its completely possible that actual AI will come about in that time frame, but what they’re talking about is turning predictive text and image generators into something on par with true sentience, which it is not really something this tech is capable of in my eyes*, the main reason this tech is being called AI is because that makes it much more marketable

As for a time frame, I have no idea. I personally believe that if TRUE AI is invented, it will either be something that happens on the basis of a new technology that we have not yet discovered, and it will happen overnight, or it will happen accidentally using existing technology in areas we arent looking for it.

• it occurs to me that by “compete with” they may mean in the job market, which is something this tech can currently do in some fields (poorly), but since it steals the work of actual humans to do so, its not really that the “AI” would be getting better to the point of competing, it would simply be that the people in charge get better at hiding the theft to the point that the content would actually seem original