Any predictions at this point are nothing more than wild speculation. Fuck’s sake, Putin’s personal caterer led a mercenary coup attempt on Moscow. How firm or how weak Putin’s grip on power is in light of absurdities like that is an absolute mystery to all of us on here. Hell, might be a mystery to the powers that be, and even Putin himself.

The West attempted desperately to keep economic ties with Russia open until it was apparent that the war would not end quickly; the idea that the decisionmakers in our governments are drooling at the prospect of Russia falling apart and cratering trade for the next decade instead of desiring a quick return to normality is just… not in-line with the historic priorities of the post Cold-War West.