I don’t understand this take. Comments like this suggest collapse happens overnight. Which means if china didn’t catastrophically collapse in the last 24 hours it means it isn’t happening at all or never.
The reality is collapse happens very slowly. There is no question that the health of the economy both in china and the rest of the world is steadily getting worse year by year.
Collapse isn’t going to happen. It’s already happening. It’s just a steady and slow march to the bottom.
An attempt to reconcile both views by comparing it to a structural collapse of, let’s say, a bridge.
In the end, it collapses. Before that, the cracks begin to show. Before that, invisible micro-cracks form. Before that, pressure exceeds limits.
Now, at which point in this story does “collapse happen”? Some use this to refer to the actual collapse, after the cracks began to show.
But since collapse is inevitable after too many micro-cracks have formed (or maybe even earlier, since those are already symptoms of an underlying cause), some refer to this long, unspectacular build-up phase as “collapse happens”.
I’m neither an economist nor a civil engineer. Bridges are complex, economies even more so. I still think these two views explain how the same term can refer to different things, or different phases of the same thing.
Collapse doesn’t happen drastically. It’s a slow boil. You’re just not paying attention. It’s slow enough that if you don’t pay attention to current events and the state of the economy it’s easy to miss and assume everything is OK.
Things are worse now than they were in 2008. It’s only getting worse. It’s going to become much much worse before it ever gets better.
I don’t understand this take. Comments like this suggest collapse happens overnight. Which means if china didn’t catastrophically collapse in the last 24 hours it means it isn’t happening at all or never.
The reality is collapse happens very slowly. There is no question that the health of the economy both in china and the rest of the world is steadily getting worse year by year.
Collapse isn’t going to happen. It’s already happening. It’s just a steady and slow march to the bottom.
There was another comment claiming that collapse happens drastically once it starts. So what is it then
Both
An attempt to reconcile both views by comparing it to a structural collapse of, let’s say, a bridge.
In the end, it collapses. Before that, the cracks begin to show. Before that, invisible micro-cracks form. Before that, pressure exceeds limits.
Now, at which point in this story does “collapse happen”? Some use this to refer to the actual collapse, after the cracks began to show.
But since collapse is inevitable after too many micro-cracks have formed (or maybe even earlier, since those are already symptoms of an underlying cause), some refer to this long, unspectacular build-up phase as “collapse happens”.
I’m neither an economist nor a civil engineer. Bridges are complex, economies even more so. I still think these two views explain how the same term can refer to different things, or different phases of the same thing.
Collapse doesn’t happen drastically. It’s a slow boil. You’re just not paying attention. It’s slow enough that if you don’t pay attention to current events and the state of the economy it’s easy to miss and assume everything is OK.
Things are worse now than they were in 2008. It’s only getting worse. It’s going to become much much worse before it ever gets better.