Meta Quest has been the leading VR platform for several years with millions of users. For studios and developers looking to build a profitable business in this market, there is no way around the Quest Store.
But in 2024, new serious competitors enter the market to challenge Meta’s dominance.
Apple is building an entirely new VR platform with Vision Pro, based on the VisionOS spatial operating system. By the end of the year, Google and Samsung are expected to join the fray, creating a third major ecosystem for standalone headsets based on Android XR, another new operating system optimized for VR and AR.
Meta Quest is also based on a modified version of Android, but it is unclear to what extent the platforms will be compatible with each other. In any case, Google and Meta have not been able to agree on closer cooperation.
They only touch very briefly on OpenXR and they also miss out some of the fundamentals. VR is powered by the same underlying tools that power other games - those are portable to different systems. That includes the use of Vulkan, which is cross platform, as well as game engines which are cross platform. Also Meta Quest runs on Android already which they seemed to miss (albeit on proprietary software).
The other major part of this that the writer is missing is the idea of “consoles”. A lack of interoperability is “good” for the platforms as they can create exclusives and try and force consumers to pick their walled garden. It is bad for consumers. What actually matters is how much interoperability there is for developers. If they can easily make their games available / port to each platform then that will negate some of the issues for customers.
However all of this is a bit pointless. The biggest issue is that no one has managed to hit the sweet spot when it comes to VR: a high fidelity experience without tethering to a PC, and a reasonable price. VR is expanding but without that mass appeal affordable high quality sweet spot it is slow and there is not the incentive to develop expensive games to further drive interest:
Fragmentation is not the issue. Making an untethered but high fidelity headset without the need for base units and a PC is the holy grail of VR. It frees up the experience to any room or space in someone’s home. Apple is the only one who has released such a product but the price is far too high. Meanwhile Meta Quest has got the price right but the quality is severely lacking. Steam VR is probably still the best experience for most people at present but the tethering and high cost is a major barrier and limits experiences.
VR is the future but the Apple Vision shows we’re still years away from the tech being affordable enough to hit a sweetspot that will have mass appeal. I personally think the most interesting thing in VR will be whatever Valve does next. The PC gaming market is large and well established with an install base of powerful enough PCs to drive growth; if they can iterate the next version of their headset to be untethered (e.g. streaming from a PC) at the same price as the Index AND slash the price of the existing Index by 50% for a tethered experience, I think that is the most likely area to drive more rapid growth. I think an all-in-one headset is too expensive right now (see Apple Vision) but a device that streams high fidelity graphics and computing from a PC might be a stepping stone. Of course it may also just not be feasible (due to latency / lag or other issues).
Elsewhere, Meta needs to improve the quality of it’s headsets which I think it’ll do but it’s going to be a slow process - they should also be aiming for a high end (i.e. more expensive headset) experience alongside the more “casual” experience of the meta quest. The Quest 3 seems to be an attempt at that but it’s still too limited compared to PC VR, and at £1k it’s a tough sell for anyone who already has a gaming PC for example - might as well still get the Index. I think they’ll just keep iterating on the Meta Quest each year - that’ll be very slow route to the sweet point but makes sense as a stratgey. Apple need to bring down the price of their headset but that’s going to take years too; the tech is right and mass production may bring down the cost over time but at the moment they’ve just got a toy for rich people. Playstation VR2 need to cut the price and build the library; they have a good chance but they don’t seem committed to VR - who is going to buy a £600 headset with a small library and without knowing there are lots of titles on the way?
Ultimately they’re all trying to converge on the same product from different directions; an untethered high fidelity all-in-one headset. We’re yet to see what Valve’s next move is after the Index 2 years ago but I think a streaming headset could be a game changer on the way to that all-in-one target.