In recent weeks, the aggressive rhetoric of Aliaksandr Lukashenka has once again attracted the attention of the world community to Belarus, namely to the threat of an invasion from its territory into one of the neighboring EU countries. In particular, much is said about the hypothetical breakthrough of the Suvalki corridor. Well, let’s find out how real this threat is and what the Belarusian army is capable of.

At present, the Belarusian army continues to carry out activities aimed at improving its combat capability - exercises, training camps, etc. In addition, since the beginning of 2024, territorial defense exercises have been held in Gomel, Hrodna and Minsk regions.

At first glance, it seems that the Belarusian army is preparing for real combat operations. But if we take into account that since 2022 the Belarusian army has not left the state of endless exercises, this opinion seems erroneous.

Despite the succession of exercises, there is no increase in the combat capability of the Belarusian army and formation of strike groups under the cover of such events. It should also be taken into account that since the summer of 2022 the information about Lukashenko’s intention to increase the number of the army from 48 thousand to 80 thousand people has been pulsating. And in February 2023 he said that in case of war Belarus could increase the army to half a million.

But, in fact, since 2022, the number of the Belarusian army has not changed, that is, as it was 48 thousand - it has remained the same. At the same time, there are about 12 thousand ground troops, while civilian personnel - up to 16.5 thousand.

That is, despite the constant exercises, bellicose statements of Alexander Lukashenko and various kinds of throw-ins, in fact, there have been no qualitative and quantitative changes in the Belarusian army for all this time. And even on the contrary.

In 2022, when the Russian occupation troops began to have a shortage of ammunition and equipment, the Russian command got access to the Belarusian warehouses and centers, from where it began to remove all the contents.

Tens of thousands of tons of ammunition, artillery SAU “Akatsia”, 2S9 “Nona-S”, howitzers D-20, D-30, “Msta-B”, etc. were taken out of warehouses 1405, 1398, 1886 and 25, 43, 46 arsenals. In other words, the reserves of the RB army were significantly depleted.

Suwalk Corridor.

The Suvalki corridor, if measured in a straight line, is about 70 kilometers from the border of Belarus to the Kaliningrad region. But no one advances in a straight line, and the breakthroughs will be carried out along the routes, the length of which reaches 100 kilometers.

Taking into account the number of Belarusian ground troops, it is simply impossible to realize such a breakthrough. Besides, one should not forget about the resistance of at least Poland and the Baltic States, and then the whole collective NATO. Then already - since the 5th article of NATO collective security works like any bureaucratic archaism with a delay.

For example, in the Ukrainian realities, the Belarusian ground forces would have been completely destroyed, not defeated, but precisely destroyed, within two weeks of active combat operations. In many respects, this is one of the reasons why Lukashenko will never go to Ukraine. He simply understands perfectly well, on the example of how dozens of Russian battalions a month are ground into a meat grinder, that there will be nothing left of his legions in an extremely short time. And the very next day Kalinovsky’s regiment will be in the center of Minsk and mass protests will begin… The fear of being without an army is much stronger for Lukashenko than the fear of Moscow.

That is why the potential of the Belarusian army is, first of all, not a general army, but only a power army. To protect Lukashenko’s dictatorship from the wrath of his own people…

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The material was prepared within the framework of the joint project of OBOZ.UA (https://www.obozrevatel.com/rus/) and the group “Information Resistance (https://sprotyv.info/)”.

Title: Analyzing the Threat of the Suvalki Corridor Breakthrough and the Capability of Lukashenko’s Army

Annotation: This analytical report assesses the likelihood of a potential invasion through the Suvalki corridor from Belarus into neighboring EU countries and evaluates the current capabilities of the Belarusian army under Alexander Lukashenko’s regime.

Keywords: Suvalki corridor, Belarusian army, Lukashenko, invasion, military capability, NATO, territorial defense.

#Belarus #SuvalkiCorridor #MilitaryAnalysis #Lukashenko #NATO #InvasionThreat

Editorial Comment: This report delves into the ongoing discourse surrounding the Suvalki corridor and its strategic significance in the context of Belarusian military capabilities. It provides valuable insights into the rhetoric of Alexander Lukashenko and the practical readiness of the Belarusian army, shedding light on potential geopolitical implications.

Disclaimer: This investigation was conducted in a time-sensitive manner and requires thorough verification. The information presented may be subject to bias, misinformation, or external manipulation, including potential interference from Russian special services. Readers are advised to interpret the findings as speculative analyses and exercise caution in drawing conclusions.

Conclusion: The analysis suggests that while the Suvalki corridor poses a theoretical threat, the practical feasibility of a breakthrough by the Belarusian army appears limited. Despite Lukashenko’s rhetoric and military exercises, there is little evidence of significant enhancement in Belarusian military capabilities. Moreover, the potential for resistance from neighboring countries and NATO further diminishes the likelihood of a successful invasion through the corridor.

Continue reading here for further analysis and insights.

This material was prepared as part of a collaboration between OBOZ.UA and the “Information Resistance” group (https://sprotyv.info/).

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