Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
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Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jul 2024 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-flat-after-1000-point-rally-in-four-days/card/a-reliable-labor-market-recession-indicator-has-triggered-but-this-time-it-could-be-bullish-for-stocks-sXgJRUlCo2TNywR6XgDc

The Sahm rule is a robust tool that has been very accurate in identifying a downturn in the business cycle and almost always doesn’t trigger outside of a recession. The simplicity of the calculation contributes to its reliability. The Sahm rule signals the early stages (onset) of a recession and generated only two false positive recession alerts since the year 1959 (there have been 11 recessions since 1950); in both instances — in 1959 and 1969 — it was just a little untimely, with the recession warning appearing a few months before a slide in the U.S. economy began.[13] In the case of the false positive warning related to the year 1959 it was followed by an actual recession six months later. The Sahm rule typically signals a recession before GDP data makes it clear.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_rule

  • Che's Motorcycle@lemmygrad.ml
    4·
    4 months ago

    Oversimplifying, an uptick in the unemployment trend means a recession is on the way.

    Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.