Cancer cases and deaths among men are expected to surge globally by 2050, according to a new study.
In the study, published Monday in Cancer, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Cancer Society, researchers projected an 84% increase in cancer cases and a 93% increase in cancer deaths among men worldwide between between 2022 and 2050.
The increases were greater among men 65 and older and in countries and territories with a low or medium human development index. The index measures each country’s development in health, knowledge and standard of living, according to the study.
Using data from the Global Cancer Observatory, the study analyzed more than 30 different types of cancers across 185 countries and territories worldwide to make demographic projections.
“We know from previous research in 2020 that cancer death rates around the world are about 43% higher in men than in women,” said CBS News chief medical correspondent Dr. Jon LaPook. “So this study today looked at, OK, what do we expect over the next 25 years? And it turns out that it translates to about 5 million more deaths per year in men in 2050, compared to today.”
Because people are dying less from other diseases and living longer, right?
If you RTA actually yes, that’s one of their main drivers of the predicted increase of cancer.
checks the microplastics in my brain
yes, that makes sense
And overall population growth and aging population due to lower fertility rates.
From the World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs:
The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today.
…
Compared to 2017, the number of persons aged 60 or above is expected to more than double by 2050 and to more than triple by 2100, rising from 962 million globally in 2017 to 2.1 billion in 2050 and 3.1 billion in 2100.
~ Sauce
Okay… I tried reading the linked paper in the article linked and from this:
The projected cancer cases and deaths in 2050 were derived through demographic projections, assuming that the 2022 estimated rates remain constant. The projections were calculated every 5 years (2025, 2030, … 2050) by multiplying the 2022 age-specific rates with their corresponding population projections for the target years (2025, 2030, … 2050), with the projected population extracted from the United Nations world population prospects.
It sounds kinda like the cancer increase is mostly due population growth. It’s not “The Earth’s crust will be 90% carcinogens by 2050” it’s "We expect a lot more people, so that means there will be a lot more old people, a lot more obese people, a lot more people who smoke and drink, and a lot more people exposed to air pollution.
I mean, the per capita cancer rate has been pretty steadily dropping in the US for the past two decades even before COVID decimated the elderly.
Did they mention doing a Lee-Carter model for the forecast?
I’m not gonna lie, calling my reading of the paper “skimming” would be generous, but I don’t recall seeing that.
Oh fun. My balls are full of plastic and I’m gonna die of cancer.
Just in time for the AMOC collapse!
