laverabe@lemmy.worldM to Political Discussion and Commentary@lemmy.worldEnglish · 23 days agoHarris is 3% up on Trump in national polling, what do you think the polling will look like in November?message-squaremessage-square11fedilinkarrow-up112arrow-down15file-text
arrow-up17arrow-down1message-squareHarris is 3% up on Trump in national polling, what do you think the polling will look like in November?laverabe@lemmy.worldM to Political Discussion and Commentary@lemmy.worldEnglish · 23 days agomessage-square11fedilinkfile-text
minus-squarelaverabe@lemmy.worldOPMlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up1·21 days agoah yeah, I had forgot about that. He was dead wrong in 2016 ;) I think he had Clinton at like 80% chance of winning, but I believe whatever errors they made back then were mostly corrected since.
minus-squarekrelvar@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up2·21 days agoSilver isn’t with 538 anymore, I think his model and the 538 model have the same basis though, probably diverging a bit since he left? In any case, the point that an 80% chance of X is no guarantee of X got pounded home, don’t you think? :)
ah yeah, I had forgot about that. He was dead wrong in 2016 ;) I think he had Clinton at like 80% chance of winning, but I believe whatever errors they made back then were mostly corrected since.
Silver isn’t with 538 anymore, I think his model and the 538 model have the same basis though, probably diverging a bit since he left?
In any case, the point that an 80% chance of X is no guarantee of X got pounded home, don’t you think? :)