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politics @lemmy.world · 2 months ago

August 2024 Swing State Polls: Toss-up Presidential Election in Swing States - Emerson Polling

emersoncollegepolling.com

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August 2024 Swing State Polls: Toss-up Presidential Election in Swing States - Emerson Polling

emersoncollegepolling.com

return2ozma@lemmy.world to

politics @lemmy.world · 2 months ago

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Democratic Statewide Candidates Lead Republican Candidates New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find…Full Release & Results

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return2ozma@lemmy.worldOP
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2 months ago
@jordanlund@lemmy.world what do you make of this latest Emerson data?
- jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
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  2 months ago
  I just re-ran the numbers today based on recent polling:
  
  As usual, national polls, yadda yadda.
  
  Let’s see the state breakdown now:
  
  Arizona: Toss Up. Harris +1, Trump +3
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
  
  Nevada: Toss Up. Harris +2, Tie
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
  
  New Mexico: Harris +8/+11
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/
  
  Texas: Trump +3/+5
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/
  
  Georgia: Harris +1/+2
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
  
  Florida: Trump +3/+4
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
  
  North Carolina: Trump +1/+2/+4
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
  
  Virginia: Harris +3
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
  
  Pennsylvania: Toss Up, 2 tied polls, Trump +1/+4/+5
  
  Michigan: Harris +2, tie
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
  
  Wisconsin: Harris +4/+5, Trump +1
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
  
  Minnesota: Harris +5/+7/+10
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
  
  So… changes from last time…
  
  Nevada moves from Harris to toss up. Georgia has moved more to Harris. Michigan is still Harris but getting closer.
  
  Plotted on the map, Harris only needs 1 of the three toss up states to win. Trump needs ALL THREE to hit 271.

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