On the ballot this year are 34 Senate seats. Democrats start with a disadvantage. They are defending 23 of those seats. Republicans are defending just 11.
To take over the Senate, Republicans do not need to do much. They need either a net gain of 1 seat if they also win the White House (and with it the ability to break ties), or a net gain of 2 seats if they don’t win the White House.
The most likely flip. In West Virginia, Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin’s retirement has opened up a seat that almost certainly will flip to Republican. (The Cook Political Report rates this likely a “Solid Republican” seat now, meaning it is nearly a sure thing that the GOP wins it.)
Can we ever get ahead?
Yes, by organizing at the grassroots level in Texas, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Maine, and Georgia so that they send two blue Senators to Congress every single year. Vote totals in those areas are close enough to overcome the GOP’s structural advantages, but it will require a ground-up operation that bridges the divide between different coalitions on the left and builds a deep bench of community-connected candidates with good name recognition.
Everybody shamed Joe Manchin (and rightly so for holding up the green new deal), but that MF was one of the reasons the dems had 51.
There are so few progressive states that, if the dems are going to ever win the Senate and be able to confirm judges, they are going to have to hold space for progressive and moderate dems alike.
Now, there is some silver lining this year. There’s an independent in Nebraska who is neck and neck with the GOP incumbent there. This person is pro union but with some socially conservative values. If elected, he will likely vote sometimes with the dems and sometimes with the GOP, essentially being a spoiler for both, but probably to the great advantage of Nebraska.
I think this person should be celebrated and encouraged. We need more people who see country over party in politics.
That’s a good point. Independents and third party candidates should ABSOLUTELY run for Senate in deep red states. They don’t have the cultural baggage of being a Democrat, and so they can triangulate on platform issues in a way that a party-affiliated Democrat couldn’t, and in so doing they might actually be able to exploit GOP candidate weaknesses with centrist or disaffected voters.