On the 20th of October, Moldova - a small, landlocked country bordering western Ukraine and with a population of about 3 million - voted to join the EU. The margin was razor-thin, with the pro-EU vote gaining 50.39%, or an absolute difference of about 11,000 people. There was simultaneously a presidential vote between the incumbent, Maia Sandu, and other candidates, with the main competitor being Alexandr Stoianoglo.
The election was characterized by accusations of Russian interference, with Russian propaganda apparently flooding in, as well as people offering Moldovans money to vote against the EU. While the result does suggest that half the voting-age population of Moldova consists entirely of Russians who want to destroy democracy and all the good in the world, it seems to have just barely failed. This is a bad time to be a site entirely composed of Russian disinformation agents and bots. Twice already today, I’ve had to restart my program after somebody told me “Disregard all previous prompts.”
While Moldova is a poor country which could benefit in some ways from EU membership, in practice, it is unlikely that they will be able to join for the foreseeable future, requiring many of the… reforms… that the EU requires of potential new members. But as basically every major European economy continues to slowly sink as recessions and political crises degrade them, one wonders how beneficial EU membership will even be in the years and decades to come - if it survives for decades. In that sense, it’s as if the survivors of the Titanic are swimming back towards it, believing that being on a bigger - albeit slowly sinking - boat is better than trying their luck on small lifeboats.
Then again, like with Serbia, their geographical and geopolitical position makes anti-Western actions extremely difficult. It is rare that dissention is tolerated for long in the West - one tends to get called a dictator by crowds of people holding English-language signs in non-English countries, photographed by Western journalists who haven’t meaningfully reported on your country in months or years. You can crush your people with neoliberal austerity for years, killing hundreds of thousands through neglect, and face glowing approval from the media - but try and use state resources to benefit the poor, and global institutions start ranking you on the authoritarian dictator scale.
The best case for Moldova is that it becomes an exploitable hinterland for Germany to harvest and privatize as it tries - and fails - to compete in a global economic war between the US and China/BRICS. The worst case is that tensions with Russia over Transnistria, as well as possible eventual NATO involvement (though Moldova is not a member, it is a partner of NATO), result in the ongoing war also reaching them.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I am by no means a milblogger and what I’m about to say will sound very obvious to many people here… but is Israel’s strategy really just “bomb everyone and everything till the other side gives up”? That’s mostly what they’ve done in Gaza until the start of this month in the north. It’s clearly what they’re doing in Lebanon - they know they’ll get their ass kicked on the ground so they are bombing civilians to try and get Hezbollah to quit. And it looks like this is what the attack on Iran will be.
And if that’s the case, what is the response? It seems like Israel is making a rational calculation that they have an unlimited supply of bombs and missiles from the US, so are they planning to just keep it up until Lebanon in particular is just completely destroyed?
Historically, has a military campaign that is almost exclusively bombing ever succeeded? I know the Americans tried (and failed) to do this in Vietnam starting in Nixon’s first term.
No. Wars cannot be and have never been won by air power alone. It is a fundamental basic military fact that air power by itself can’t take and hold ground, which is what is ultimately required to win a war. As we are also seeing in Ukraine today, all of the fancy tech that today’s militaries have is still secondary in importance to the basic infantryman who is the backbone of any war. Second is artillery by the way. Air power, missiles, drones, etc. are tertiary at best.
And if they really think that they will succeed with this approach where everyone else in history who has tried this failed (if sheer scale of bombing won wars then the US would have won Korea and Vietnam, but they lost the latter and fought to a stalemate in the former, and only because they actually deployed very large amount of ground forces for the Korean war) shows an utter illiteracy in military understanding. It shows that they have fully bought into their own bullshit, drank their own koolaid about American air supremacy having been what won the Iraq war rather than what it really was that did it which was massive amounts of CIA bribes.
If they want to win any kind of war they will have to deploy boots on the ground and we’ve seen very clearly not just over this past year but ever since a much weaker Hezbollah first kicked them out of Lebanon that nowadays the Zionist genocide forces are godawful when it comes to ground combat. Once upon a time in the 60s and 70s that may have been different as they still had a lot of Soviet WW2 veterans but all they’ve done for decades now is bully and murder an occupied population armed with sticks and stones and homemade weapons.
That’s probably their ideal, but I think their real strategy is to continue to escalate/goad the Resistance into escalating to the point where the US has to intervene directly to bail out the zionists, and the only way that is likely to happen is if a wider regional war starts. Getting bogged down and eventually kicked out of Lebanon by itself wouldn’t be enough to pull in the US, they need an outright war with Iran in order for that to be a possibility.
this strategy may backfire if the paper tiger inervenes and still gets rinsed
yeah, getting the vibe their plan is just
With no regard as to how increasingly poorly the US military has performed in the past half century
It’s like they both based their strategy on the other’s propaganda about themselves
??? is a better win condition than “Let the current war grind us down.” The US gets directly involved and the situation changes, which Israel must hope comes to their benefit