Current plans and policies will lead to 2.6 to 3.1 degrees Celsius of global warming this century, with zero chance of limiting the temperature increase to the totemic 1.5C target agreed in Paris in 2015, according to a new report out Thursday.
Current plans and policies will lead to 2.6 to 3.1 degrees Celsius of global warming this century, with zero chance of limiting the temperature increase to the totemic 1.5C target agreed in Paris in 2015, according to a new report out Thursday.
You’re correct on the long term playout, but two things I’d suggest as well.
One is that we don’t have to reach these limits to see bad things, as evidenced by what we’ve experienced even at the low end of 1 degree C. It’s an ongoing buildup with worse and worse happening, so even a bit more warming and a little slower currents could have huge impacts way before the final results.
Second is that we’re journeying into unknown territory. We can model the best we can with the knowledge we have, but this rate of change and how its occurring has never happened in the Earth’s history, so all we have to work with is science we’ve learned and try to extrapolate. Point being, we think these things might happen over a century or two, but it’s not a given. We also could experience sudden spasms as the climate shifts.