Until now, the story of Michigan’s role in the election has centered on Arab Americans’ profound discontent with the Democratic Party over Israel’s relentless devastation of Gaza. The war has left deep emotional wounds.

Israel’s recent military incursion into Lebanon feels like another twist of the knife, intensifying the sense of betrayal and alienation of one of the most critical voting constituencies in the country.

Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the presidency will plummet if she loses Michigan, and current polling shows she and Donald Trump are neck and neck there.

In addition to about 9,000 Palestinian Americans, Michigan is home to roughly 82,000 Lebanese Americans — more than any other state. Considering that Hillary Clinton lost Michigan by fewer than 11,000 voters in 2016, Lebanese Michiganders could very well decide the 2024 election.

Come November 5, I think we may look back on the weeks after Israel invaded Lebanon as the moment Harris lost significant ground in the race.

As I sat down to write this, I got a text from a family member back in Michigan, Reema Ghareeb: “I just found out there was a strike three minutes from my cousin’s house.”

She was going to vote for Harris, but now she doesn’t think she can. “I’d never vote for Trump, he’d be worse,” she said, “but in light of what’s happening in Lebanon I have no idea how I can vote for Harris.”