In the thick of 2020, when COVID-19 was unearthing vast unemployment and breeding global uncertainty, the U.S. saw a peculiar trend. Instead of the anticipated sharp decline, fertility rates dropped only marginally. Key takeaways from a new study, The COVID-19 baby bump in the United States (Martha J. Bailey,
I think we worry about population too much. The way you stop excessive population growth is to eliminate poverty and improve child mortality.
RIP Hans Rosling - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oxxx03_JHlM
We are at peak child. This is a few years old and there are still around 2 billion children in the world. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E&t=1316s It’s worth watching the entire video.
Oh yes, we’re on the track to peak population, no worries about that. I just don’t think that’s bad.
The problem here is population decline in America is caused by
People aren’t able to meet fertility goals because of economic and health issues
More and more young people are committing suicide
If it was a matter of people just choosing not to have kids, not because material conditions force them, then you are right
Birth rates are declining all over the world except in the poorest countries. As countries become richer their birth rates drop because people have more options in their life. I think a simpler explanation for the covid baby bump is that people didn’t have anything else to do.
Suicide is tragic but according to the CDC there were 7,135 deaths from suicide for people under 25 in 2021. The number one cause of death for people under 25 are accidents with 20,139 deaths in 2021. It would be extremely unpopular, but raising the driving age to 21 would dramatically cut those accidental deaths.
Even the poorest countries TFR are declining, especially African countries which has the highest TFR https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/04/05/the-worlds-peak-population-may-be-smaller-than-expected
The article just talked about how increasing social spending and work flexibility increase fertility rates to those who benefit, while those who don’t benefit saw a decline in TFR
The author may be down for that considering he also writes on YIMBY stuff