The original was posted on /r/dota2 by /u/Hawkie74

TL;DR: Sort each table by the expectation (Exp.) column and pick accordingly.

Resources

  • I have made a DPC Fantasy Tracker to help you evaluate your results.
  • The exponentially weighted averages across each player’s 50 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches is available in this Google Sheet.
  • This guide is purely a quantitative analysis. For a qualitative analysis, I recommend checking out u/flygon727’s guides.

Gold/Silver Card Bonuses

Please refer to this Google Sheet for what to look for for each individual player, or the table below for what to look for for each role in general.

Table 1: The percentage of fantasy points earned by each indicator for each role.

Indicator Core Mid Support
Camps Stacked 7.08 4.14 11.49
Creep Score 7.92 6.26 1.78
Deaths 13.98 12.20 8.27
First Blood 2.99 1.46 3.36
GPM 9.10 7.47 4.66
Kills 11.89 13.72 6.28
Obs Wards 0.67 3.86 28.61
Roshan Kills 2.58 2.08 0.36
Runes Grabbed 6.28 18.08 9.25
Stuns 9.35 11.16 9.30
Teamfight 13.71 13.48 14.49
Tower Kills 14.45 6.09 2.14

Summer Major 2023

Table 2: The schedule.

Team 1 Team 2 Series Time
INVICTUS GAMING beastcoast Bo2 2023-07-02 02:00 UTC
Shopify Rebellion Team Spirit Bo2 2023-07-02 02:00 UTC
Team Aster Blacklist Rivalry Bo2 2023-07-02 02:00 UTC
Execration Tundra Esports Bo2 2023-07-02 02:00 UTC
PSG.LGD 9Pandas Bo2 2023-07-02 04:30 UTC
BLEED Evil Geniuses Bo2 2023-07-02 04:30 UTC
BetBoom Team Quest Esports Bo2 2023-07-02 04:30 UTC
Gaimin Gladiators nouns Bo2 2023-07-02 04:30 UTC
INVICTUS GAMING Shopify Rebellion Bo2 2023-07-02 07:00 UTC
Team Liquid Tundra Esports Bo2 2023-07-02 07:00 UTC
Team Aster Execration Bo2 2023-07-02 07:00 UTC
Team Spirit Blacklist Rivalry Bo2 2023-07-02 07:00 UTC
PSG.LGD Azure Ray Bo2 2023-07-02 09:30 UTC
9Pandas Quest Esports Bo2 2023-07-02 09:30 UTC
BLEED BetBoom Team Bo2 2023-07-02 09:30 UTC
Evil Geniuses Gaimin Gladiators Bo2 2023-07-02 09:30 UTC

Table 3: The potential choices for the Core role.

Player Team Series Avg. Std. Exp.
TA2000 Quest Esports Bo2 + Bo2 18.03 7.49 40.98
Raven^ Blacklist Rivalry Bo2 + Bo2 16.91 5.01 37.12
JimPark beastcoast Bo2 18.54 6.24 37.08
JACKKY BLEED Bo2 + Bo2 15.21 6.19 34.49
Nightfall BetBoom Team Bo2 + Bo2 15.22 5.36 33.97
Dust INVICTUS GAMING Bo2 + Bo2 14.84 4.87 32.88
RAMZES666 9Pandas Bo2 + Bo2 14.53 5.78 32.87
天鸽 Shopify Rebellion Bo2 + Bo2 14.87 4.63 32.80
dyrachyo Gaimin Gladiators Bo2 + Bo2 14.93 4.35 32.73
Palos Execration Bo2 + Bo2 14.21 5.59 32.11
shiro PSG.LGD Bo2 + Bo2 14.25 5.28 31.98
skiter Tundra Esports Bo2 + Bo2 14.45 4.48 31.86
Monet Team Aster Bo2 + Bo2 14.27 4.79 31.70
Pakazs Evil Geniuses Bo2 + Bo2 13.70 5.89 31.28
Yatoro雨 Team Spirit Bo2 + Bo2 13.81 5.13 31.00
Ace ♠ Gaimin Gladiators Bo2 + Bo2 13.15 4.80 29.46
33 Tundra Esports Bo2 + Bo2 13.39 3.64 29.18
AMMAR_THE_F Quest Esports Bo2 + Bo2 13.01 4.51 29.00
Tino Execration Bo2 + Bo2 12.88 4.24 28.56
Collapse Team Spirit Bo2 + Bo2 12.87 4.06 28.42
iceiceice BLEED Bo2 + Bo2 12.25 5.01 27.81
SaberLight Shopify Rebellion Bo2 + Bo2 12.40 4.35 27.67
kpii Blacklist Rivalry Bo2 + Bo2 12.29 4.24 27.36
m1CKe Team Liquid Bo2 13.67 4.50 27.34
Lou Azure Ray Bo2 13.55 5.04 27.10
Pure~ BetBoom Team Bo2 + Bo2 12.33 3.02 26.64
Xxs Team Aster Bo2 + Bo2 11.83 3.23 25.78
项羽 INVICTUS GAMING Bo2 + Bo2 11.14 4.35 25.14
zai Team Liquid Bo2 12.52 3.77 25.04
Yamsun nouns Bo2 12.41 5.66 24.82
niu PSG.LGD Bo2 + Bo2 10.98 3.85 24.50
MieRo` 9Pandas Bo2 + Bo2 10.82 3.16 23.71
Moo nouns Bo2 11.58 4.33 23.16
Wisper Evil Geniuses Bo2 + Bo2 10.35 3.50 23.01
chalice Azure Ray Bo2 11.27 4.55 22.54
Sacred beastcoast Bo2 10.19 3.34 20.38

Table 4: The potential choices for the Mid role.

Player Team Series Avg. Std. Exp.
Abed Shopify Rebellion Bo2 + Bo2 16.74 5.20 36.91
No!ob™ Quest Esports Bo2 + Bo2 16.64 4.82 36.46
Emo INVICTUS GAMING Bo2 + Bo2 16.16 5.62 36.02
gpk~ BetBoom Team Bo2 + Bo2 16.73 3.88 36.01
Karl Blacklist Rivalry Bo2 + Bo2 16.21 4.62 35.47
kiyotaka 9Pandas Bo2 + Bo2 15.94 5.43 35.46
Suma1L- Team Aster Bo2 + Bo2 15.32 4.86 33.85
Nine Tundra Esports Bo2 + Bo2 15.42 4.33 33.69
Quinn Gaimin Gladiators Bo2 + Bo2 15.57 3.86 33.68
Larl Team Spirit Bo2 + Bo2 15.07 3.71 32.58
NothingToSay PSG.LGD Bo2 + Bo2 14.79 3.99 32.20
Kordan BLEED Bo2 + Bo2 14.34 4.28 31.50
C.smile < Evil Geniuses Bo2 + Bo2 14.16 4.59 31.35
Bob Execration Bo2 + Bo2 13.90 5.04 31.12
DarkMago♡ beastcoast Bo2 15.54 4.52 31.08
Nisha Team Liquid Bo2 15.38 4.83 30.75
Somnus Azure Ray Bo2 15.22 4.77 30.44
Gunnar nouns Bo2 14.92 5.66 29.85

Table 5: The potential choices for the Support role.

Player Team Series Avg. Std. Exp.
tOfu Gaimin Gladiators Bo2 + Bo2 16.15 6.33 36.47
Pyw INVICTUS GAMING Bo2 + Bo2 15.88 4.86 34.97
Saksa Tundra Esports Bo2 + Bo2 16.01 4.35 34.89
Carlo Execration Bo2 + Bo2 15.70 4.83 34.58
皮球 Team Aster Bo2 + Bo2 16.02 3.76 34.52
kaori Quest Esports Bo2 + Bo2 14.80 5.09 32.95
DJ BLEED Bo2 + Bo2 14.75 4.38 32.38
Seleri Gaimin Gladiators Bo2 + Bo2 14.28 5.66 32.28
TIMS Blacklist Rivalry Bo2 + Bo2 14.39 4.34 31.63
DuBu BLEED Bo2 + Bo2 14.48 4.02 31.62
Antares 9Pandas Bo2 + Bo2 14.41 3.71 31.27
OmaR Quest Esports Bo2 + Bo2 14.08 4.66 31.23
Insania Team Liquid Bo2 15.47 2.96 30.94
TORONTOTOKYO BetBoom Team Bo2 + Bo2 14.24 3.50 30.79
BossKu^ Blacklist Rivalry Bo2 + Bo2 14.20 3.55 30.74
Sneyking Tundra Esports Bo2 + Bo2 14.20 3.46 30.68
Solo 9Pandas Bo2 + Bo2 14.00 4.07 30.68
Miposhka Team Spirit Bo2 + Bo2 14.24 3.26 30.62
planet PSG.LGD Bo2 + Bo2 14.22 3.16 30.51
WhyouSm1Le PSG.LGD Bo2 + Bo2 13.78 4.04 30.23
Mira Team Spirit Bo2 + Bo2 13.63 3.99 29.89
Cr1t- Shopify Rebellion Bo2 + Bo2 13.66 3.65 29.73
Matthew Evil Geniuses Bo2 + Bo2 13.44 4.13 29.61
BoBoKa Team Aster Bo2 + Bo2 13.41 4.10 29.52
Shanks Execration Bo2 + Bo2 13.42 3.73 29.31
qyqx INVICTUS GAMING Bo2 + Bo2 13.27 3.71 28.98
Save- BetBoom Team Bo2 + Bo2 13.17 3.69 28.78
天命 Azure Ray Bo2 14.38 3.62 28.76
Fly Shopify Rebellion Bo2 + Bo2 12.69 4.55 28.38
Panda Evil Geniuses Bo2 + Bo2 12.88 3.68 28.18
Husky nouns Bo2 13.95 3.21 27.90
fy Azure Ray Bo2 13.38 3.70 26.75
stingeR beastcoast Bo2 13.34 3.50 26.68
Scofield beastcoast Bo2 13.33 3.86 26.66
Boxi Team Liquid Bo2 13.11 3.09 26.23
Lelis nouns Bo2 12.21 3.65 24.42

Notes

  • The data has been acquired from OpenDota and datdota.
  • The numbers here are based on each player’s 50 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches.
  • Each match has been exponentially weighted such that the most recent matches have the biggest impact.

Glossary

  • Avg.: Average.
  • Std.: Standard deviation.
  • Exp.: Expectation / expected value.
  • Bas. Exp.: Baseline expectation, i.e. the expectation if only the confirmed series are played.
  • Pot. Exp.: Potential expectation, i.e. the expectation if all potential series are played.
  • (BoX): Denotes series that could potentially be played depending on the outcome of earlier series.