cross-posted from: https://lemmit.online/post/90147

This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.

The original was posted on /r/dota2 by /u/Hawkie74 on 2023-07-04 17:11:53+00:00.

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TL;DR: Sort each table by the expectation (Exp.) column and pick accordingly.

Resources

• I have made a DPC Fantasy Tracker to help you evaluate your results.
• The exponentially weighted averages across each player’s 50 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches is available in this Google Sheet.
• This guide is purely a quantitative analysis. For a qualitative analysis, I recommend checking out u/flygon727’s guides.

Gold/Silver Card Bonuses

Please refer to this Google Sheet for what to look for for each individual player, or the table below for what to look for for each role in general.

**Table 1:* The percentage of fantasy points earned by each indicator for each role.*

Indicator	Core	Mid	Support
Camps Stacked	7.67	4.38	12.32
Creep Score	7.82	6.23	1.72
Deaths	14.71	12.69	8.79
First Blood	3.27	0.85	3.29
GPM	9.13	7.51	4.64
Kills	12.18	13.05	6.21
Obs Wards	0.62	3.73	28.01
Roshan Kills	2.65	2.07	0.31
Runes Grabbed	6.65	18.21	9.35
Stuns	7.48	11.76	9.27
Teamfight	13.15	13.29	14.09
Tower Kills	14.67	6.23	2.00

Summer Major 2023

**Table 2:* The schedule.*

Team 1	Team 2	Series	Time
Team Liquid	PSG.LGD	Bo3	2023-07-05 02:00 UTC
BetBoom Team	Tundra Esports	Bo3	2023-07-05 05:45 UTC
beastcoast	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo3	2023-07-05 09:30 UTC
Quest Esports	Team Aster	Bo3	2023-07-05 13:15 UTC

**Table 3:* The potential choices for the Core role.*

Player	Team	Series	Avg.	Std.	Exp.
JimPark	beastcoast	Bo3	18.91	6.04	40.26
TA2000	Quest Esports	Bo3	16.78	7.48	35.99
Nightfall	BetBoom Team	Bo3	15.10	4.98	32.21
dyrachyo	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo3	14.83	4.75	31.62
Monet	Team Aster	Bo3	14.69	5.16	31.57
shiro	PSG.LGD	Bo3	14.22	5.51	30.70
skiter	Tundra Esports	Bo3	14.16	4.48	30.13
m1CKe	Team Liquid	Bo3	13.47	4.54	28.84
Pure~	BetBoom Team	Bo3	12.92	4.48	27.65
Ace ♠	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo3	12.65	4.72	27.24
33	Tundra Esports	Bo3	12.84	3.46	27.08
AMMAR_THE_F	Quest Esports	Bo3	12.43	4.43	26.39
zai	Team Liquid	Bo3	11.87	3.90	25.34
Xxs	Team Aster	Bo3	11.73	2.97	24.71
niu	PSG.LGD	Bo3	11.34	4.38	24.46
Sacred	beastcoast	Bo3	10.53	3.51	22.49

**Table 4:* The potential choices for the Mid role.*

Player	Team	Series	Avg.	Std.	Exp.
Suma1L-	Team Aster	Bo3	16.09	4.53	34.09
gpk~	BetBoom Team	Bo3	16.18	4.02	33.97
Nisha	Team Liquid	Bo3	15.77	5.32	33.74
No!ob™	Quest Esports	Bo3	15.65	5.11	33.03
DarkMago♡	beastcoast	Bo3	15.57	4.53	32.99
Quinn	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo3	15.25	3.73	32.04
Nine	Tundra Esports	Bo3	15.24	4.03	32.01
NothingToSay	PSG.LGD	Bo3	14.45	4.53	30.75

**Table 5:* The potential choices for the Support role.*

Player	Team	Series	Avg.	Std.	Exp.
tOfu	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo3	16.20	6.89	35.24
Saksa	Tundra Esports	Bo3	16.01	4.35	33.58
皮球	Team Aster	Bo3	15.97	3.54	33.43
Insania	Team Liquid	Bo3	15.00	3.45	31.41
Sneyking	Tundra Esports	Bo3	14.74	3.54	30.93
Seleri	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo3	14.11	5.77	30.59
TORONTOTOKYO	BetBoom Team	Bo3	14.12	3.27	29.55
planet	PSG.LGD	Bo3	13.96	3.98	29.55
stingeR	beastcoast	Bo3	13.99	3.71	29.49
kaori	Quest Esports	Bo3	13.77	5.50	29.40
Scofield	beastcoast	Bo3	13.72	4.15	29.12
WhyouSm1Le	PSG.LGD	Bo3	13.48	4.47	28.79
BoBoKa	Team Aster	Bo3	13.43	4.33	28.68
OmaR	Quest Esports	Bo3	13.47	4.77	28.48
Boxi	Team Liquid	Bo3	13.04	3.15	27.39
Save-	BetBoom Team	Bo3	12.73	3.53	26.88

Notes

• The data has been acquired from OpenDota and datdota.
• The numbers here are based on each player’s 50 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches.
• Each match has been exponentially weighted such that the most recent matches have the biggest impact.

Glossary

• Avg.: Average.
• Std.: Standard deviation.
• Exp.: Expectation / expected value.
• Bas. Exp.: Baseline expectation, i.e. the expectation if only the confirmed series are played.
• Pot. Exp.: Potential expectation, i.e. the expectation if all potential series are played.
• (BoX): Denotes series that could potentially be played depending on the outcome of earlier series.