Cunigulus [they/them]

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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: April 27th, 2022

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  • Honestly this debate probably slightly hurts Kamala, just by virtue of people having to watch her more. She didn’t do a great job of rebutting Trump. Her response to him just lying his ass off the whole time just wasn’t sharp enough, and there was so little substance in her responses - it’s just not going to move the needle for anyone. My lib boyfriend just gave up watching it after 30 minutes or so and was laughing at Trump half the time. It just made me depressed and less interested in giving a fuck about this election.







  • These things go slowly, slowly then all at once. There’s been a lot more movement on the front these last few months, and the Ukrainian army is pretty depleted. At some point Russia is going to wind up for a big kick at an open door and we’ll see things starting to look more like Afghanistan in 2021 or the final months of the Third Reich. A negotiated peace is the only thing that can prevent this kind of outcome, and Ukraine might be smart enough to go in for it before things really start to deteriorate. Even so it’s hard to imagine the Russians crossing back over the Dnieper and even harder imagining them taking a defended Odessa. If they get Odessa it will be in a peace treaty, not by military force.


  • The crazy thing about the prison abuse stories coming out now, on the eve of the planned Hezbollah operation, is that it suggests a rift in Israeli and American politics and it looks like the American side is using this to heavily lean on the Israeli side to not escalate. I think the US election angle is significant here as well. Bidenworld has been trying to keep some kind of a lid on this thing so it doesn’t blow up, while Netanyahu - maybe in coalition with Trump just wants to escalate to keep his grip on power. Now that Harris is taking the reigns, suddenly we get some more muscular moves - in the form of a nod to the propaganda media to touch this abuse scandal - necessarily coordinated with some sector of Israeli politics that’s trying to avert a war with Hezbollah. If Netanyahu gets his war Israel goes into survival mode and the gloves are off - historical genocide, mass missile and drone attacks from the resistance axis, large scale resistance military formations moving to Lebanon and the Golan, political instability across the Middle East - Iraq will be a mess. It’s a disaster that probably ends in Israeli conventional defeat and a high chance of nuclear weapons use.




  • I’ll probably vote for her tbh. I know she did some bad shit as a prosecutor, and I don’t like her, but she hasn’t to my knowledge done anything completely unacceptable like vote for the Iraq War or preside over the Gaza genocide. She’s almost certainly a one-term president who will give up the office to whoever the Republicans run in 2028. I just kind of expect the crazy shit going on right now to be wrapped up by then, probably Taiwan too. A sock-puppet for California money seems less likely to blow up the world over American decline than whoever will be pulling the strings in a second Trump administration.




  • The “Bring Back Domestic Manufacturing, isolationism” stuff was very much not part of early 2000’s conservative republican politics. They were hyper-liberals on economics in a way that’s not credible today and this was peak war on terror. His brand of politics is much closer to Trumpism than anything from the Bush era, and I’d argue its likely to be much more appealing to a broad base of people. This is pointing the way forward for the Republicans much more than the Pence pick was. Picking up the smart parts of Trump’s populism without the personal baggage. The problem is it’s completely superficial because these politicians are still beholden to the same elite donor base that has made everything the way it is. If they end up in power for any length of time they’ll become deeply unpopular just like the third-way.