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Cake day: 2024年8月15日

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  • That depends on how they act. China right now is on a path where I’d oppose them replacing the US. However the EU has the ability to replace the US as the global superpower - they don’t because despite some significant differences overall the US and EU get along well and so they don’t see any point. By cooperating the EU gains the things they want from being a global superpower without the disadvantages. Part of that cooperation is the EU is in NATO (mostly?) and so they are paying some of the military costs of the US being a global super power.

    The US isn’t perfect by any means, but we have done much better in many ways vs previous global superpowers. Right now I’d predict China would be worse so I oppose it. However who knows how things will change in the future.













  • Algorithms done right are useful. Make sure things that are likely important to be bubble to the top. I don’t have time to read/watch it all, so prioritize the important things for me.

    Done right is the hard part. It is too easy to prioritize memes that make people angry even though if you really investigate you discover that while there is a little truth it is grossly exaggerated and whoever is being mocked isn’t that stupid - because things that make people mad tend to get attention.

    The algorithm really needs a “there is plenty more but you have seen all the important stuff - go outside and do something” after I’ve seen what is important. Of course it then needs a “but I’m currently confined to a hospital bed so just show me something so I’m not bored out of my mind”. The likes of facebook of course cannot allow such a thing as once you stop scrolling their ad revenue is gone. However that is what the world needs.






  • That is one option that is sometimes used. More commonly if you want the company you just buy 10-20% which you can get fairly quickly without affecting the price too much, then you use your large stock holder privileges to go to the board and ask them to sell for current price + small margin. The board will almost always put this to a shareholder vote and is it likely enough will go for it (you already control 20% of those votes so you need just 31% to defect). Most large companies have rules around this so you might need more than 50% of the vote, but still odds are you can get enough votes.

    What Porsche did to VW is different. The German government owns 25% of VW and are not selling and have laws in place to ensure that VW cannot be bought. That forces Porsche to instead buy the remaining shares but they can never just buy the company. It is an interesting case, but it is an exception to the normal rules and so be careful not to apply it elsewhere.



  • There is are laws that ties them together. When then company goes bankrupt all shares stop trading (not when they declare bankruptcy, it will be later in the process) thus forcing the value to zero. When someone else buys the company all shares are force sold aa an agreed upon price (you get to vote on the price but if you vote no and lose you still sell) thus forcing the final trading price. There are also ways for a company to be delisted based on something the company does - the stock can still be traded but it becomes much harder without an exchange and so the effective value is zero (or maybe a few cents if you can figure out how to trade anyway).

    However the above are all things that don’t happen very often to any one company. Nearly every week has several companies do one of the above, but if you are looking at a specific company it will probably be decades before the above happens and those are decades where the price is whatever supply and demand wants it to be. Because of the above threats long term the value of a company tends to correlate to the company size / value, but that long term can be decades.