I have always wondered, at what point does the team know they missed on a pick? For example, on the first day of Cardinals training camp, was it obvious that the team had missed on the Josh Rosen pick? Did the Bengals know right away that Joe Burrow was going to be a star?
Varies based on the player. Dan Reeves pretty much knew Ted Gregory was a bust before the guy even suited up. In fairness being a 5’9" DT (allegedly) made it kind of obvious.
I remember after his first start, a lot of us in Arizona felt like Rosen was going to be pretty good.
He showed some promise early on, but it all got beaten out of him.
Mac Jones had a fantastic rookie year. I doubt the Patriots coaches/FO saw coming what is happening today…
Isaiah wilson
I’ve heard players with podcasts talk about knowing the team messed up within a couple practices.
It’s been a year or two since I last heard it but Tony Boselli has this story that he’s told a few times over the years on the Jags Monday podcasts about this player who came into minicamp during his heyday as a player (don’t remember if it was a drafted player or not) but he made it clear that it was obvious even in shorts that the guy couldn’t play football
I remember when the Niners drafted Lance all the reports would come out of him throwing under 50 percent in practice, and all the players would say quotes about him like “ he’s learning and processing fast.” I wonder if they secretly knew they fucked up, and that’s why they retained Jimmy the next year just in case
Danny Watkins. I’m not sure he made it to training camp for the Eagles— first round pick, an Andy Reid selection, who decided to pursue his passion as a firefighter over being a first-round pick in the NFL.
AJ Jenkins
I think it is possible to know immediately, some dudes show up to camp out of shape with 0 study done and obviously have been riding on raw talent rather than any work ethic. The opposite can also be true.
Then, there is the difference between knowing and how long it takes to admit/acknowledge it. IMO it’s obvious Bryce isn’t going to be the guy but I’m not sure if they are ready to admit that.
Generally they know
I imagine there’s a lot of confirmation bias. Coaches and players will say “yeah I could tell”. But most rookies aren’t great and do improve and I imagine unless they’re a complete disaster it’s hard to tell.
Tyreek Hill said Mahomes was trash as a rookie and imagine people have thought that about various rookies who’ve been good just don’t then come out and say “yeah I thought he’d suck”
KeiVare Russell was a 3rd round CB that was so bad the Chiefs cut him after week 1 of the year they drafted him. Looked up his stats and he had a whopping 20 career tackles, 2 PD and one lone INT for his career.
What a waste of a pick.
I remember reading the Jags training camp all the receivers were just amazed at Justin Blackmon. They’d all talk about these impossible catches he made. He would have been a God amongst receivers, but he got lost with drugs and lost interest in playing.
I immediately knew Mac Jones was a bust. No data to back me up but when there were rumors that he would be coming to the 9ers I was LIVID.
Ended up with Trey Lance who by the time of the draft I was glad we picked him. Now I’m glad we got rid of him
The same draft I expected Jets to pass on Zach Wilson so we could pick him. I guess General Manager is not a carrer path for me