U.S. is busy with Israel and Ukraine
Hopefully US is not always ready for more bloodshed
I think the U.S. is always prepared for more bloodshed, but it might be bogged down by Israel and to a lesser extent Ukraine.
I think with so many fronts in so many places the US can not adequantly support all its allies, so this is the right time for Venezuela. Especially if more anti-imperialist fronts start to appear.
Venezuela is not on the other side of the Ocean, and neither is it as militarily capable as Russia or Iran. Obviously, they also don’t have nukes. The US would steamroll Venezuela if they judge it necessary to protect their precious oil.
This is such a crucial time in world history… the US is losing control of so many resource-rich regions, that it has to pick which ones it wants to cling on to. It’s probably a good time for VZ to do this, considering the US is embroiled in two conflicts already (Ukraine and Israel), and might not be able to muster up getting involved in yet another.
Some important context on this https://theintercept.com/2023/06/18/guyana-exxon-mobil-oil-drilling/
Some more crucial context:
On Wednesday, Venezuela’s attorney general issued an arrest warrant for 10 opposition leaders including Juan Guaidó
Here’s an interview regarding these opposition members.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/0RI5YJxeGyorwWusjypNr6?si=s4_QEjSNTTWOuHZ971tbVA
Well, here is the chance for the US to further take down Venezuela.
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What? He is the imperialist. What kind of shift is happening here? These are hundred years old borders he wants to shift due to being bankrupt and wanting the sweet sweet oil. How can anyone defend this?
Can someone explain this whole thing like I haven’t a clue? Why would this be a good thing for Venezuela to do now when they get so much shit from the US and stuff anyway?
This region has always been disputed, but Guyana recently discovered a bunch of oil, a portion of which is off the coast of the disputed area. The issue has basically been dormant for decades, because the region in question despite being 90% of the land area of Guyana has only 10-15% of the population, mostly Indigenous villages. However, it was never formally resolved, which means the countries’ coastal economic zone was never resolved either. This would also be fine, except Guyana has already got involved with Exxon to start exploring oil reserves in the contested offshore area, so Venezuela has to do something now or else the precedent will be set that it belongs to Guyana, which will be almost impossible to undo.
Frankly I don’t think either side here is prepared for a full-scale military conflict, I think Venezuela will annex the territory by just starting to provide administration to the region, build roads etc. and claim that as it was essentially not being administered to before (and it really wasn’t), Guyana has lost claim to it. Nor does Guyana have the resources to start administering it properly, because as a US/Western puppet they’ve been thoroughly drained the same way every latin american puppet has. So what I’m really hoping is Venezuela can just peacefully push them out through simple economic, administrative means.
Yeah this is a push to return to the diplomatic table. Guyana and Venezuela could reach an agreement that both keep part of the land
Without Brazil’s support, Venezuela would have a hard time invading Guyana. I agree with what @CascadeOfLight@hexbear.net said, Venezuela will try to win the support of the people living in Essequiba with aid and other things. And Guyana cannot and will not respond militarily to that. I think in the end both will agree to co-administer the territory and wait for a UN referendum.
They straight up have to enter Brazil to reach Guyana for a military operation. Brazil would be complicit if they let Venezuela do that.
I’d like to add to this in the a part of the oil block claimed by Exxon is in a non-contested area within Venezuelan maritime borders.
I posted a summary here.
https://lemmygrad.ml/comment/3190900
The narrative is far beyond “imperialist Venezuela”. Exxon is claiming oil reserves within Venezuelan maritime borders, its neighbour is an American puppet regime, and America is looking to establish a military base right next door.
Last but not least, Venezuela is being forced to accept opaque “electoral reforms” in return for an easing of sanctions.
