This is kind of only a problem if you let it be. It’s more likely to affect more tech savvy people, but lacking in Linux experience, as they will be aware enough of their specific technical desires/needs, but not have the knowledge to know what meets them.

For regular people who just use windows or Mac os that came with the computer, then they will be happy with whatever Linux flavour they get, because it just is their computer’s OS.

I agree the spectrum of distros can be hard to navigate, but ultimately it makes not much difference. Just pick one.

As for the rest:

• if you don’t want to experiment, pick the DE you like the look of most, possibly basing it on an OS you’re more familiar with.
  • If you want a vaguely older windows (7ish) look/feel use KDE.
  • If you like the macos workflow either use Gnome or pick a distro that more closely mimics it (Garuda, Mint with Cinnamon)
  • if you do want to experiment, install a handful of distros in VMs. This is what I did before picking what I’m running now
• For X/Wayland unless you really have some reason to care, just use the DE default. Most that support Wayland allow switching at the login screen anyway
• init/systemd, I wouldn’t pick with those in mind, just use what the distro comes with. For the average user, who cares?! For a non average user, pick one, if you change your mind then change it
• package manager, again who cares?! Use what the distro uses, or increasingly use nix, or flatpak, or distrobox, or all of them

For most regular people, the choice isn’t a hurdle - pick one with a default DE that looks nice, and for everything else use what it came with.

For anyone else, instead of being paralysed by choice, just try something and change later if you’re dissatisfied.