I asked GPT-4 for a list of the most important threats to human civilization, their likelihood, and why they were considered threats.
GPT’s output is also pasted into the comments.
I asked GPT-4 for a list of the most important threats to human civilization, their likelihood, and why they were considered threats.
GPT’s output is also pasted into the comments.
It has drastically overstated the likelihood of a globally catastrophic impact from space.
A devastating regional impact is estimated to occur once every 10,000 to 100,000 years. Note that’s regional not global.
There has only been one of any significance in all of recorded history that I’m aware of, which fortunately took place in an uninhabited region of Siberia.
Search for Torino Scale if you’re interested in learning more about how they estimate and categorize these threats.
If it happens every 10,000 years, then the probability it will happen in the next 10 years is 1/1000 or 0.1%.
Make that 100,000 years, and the probability is 0.01%.
If your numbers are correct it looks like it gave the right probabilities to match them.