Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
Archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20240712121307/https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll
And 60% polled said trump was going to win…
But I’m sure people are going to say this poll is good for Biden.
It doesn’t matter who people expect to win and who they consider the underdog. The only thing that matters is who actually gets the most votes.
And in this poll, that person was Biden. So this poll is good news for Biden.
*In swing states, unfortunately.
Factually untrue:
You didn’t even have to click the article, OP quoted it in the summary…
Did you not even read that?
Are you going to change your conclusion now?
Or will you act like a trump supporter and change your “logic” so that you still get the conclusion you want?
That’s all I care about.
Why?
The general won’t be head to head.
It’s going to have RFK jr’s brain worm, just like this poll.
No, the general mostly will be head to head. Because RFK isn’t even on the ballot in most states.
Can you provide a single state where the only two options are going to be Biden or trump then?
Because I don’t believe there’s a single one that’s actually “head to head” where the small part of this poll you care about would ever matter.
Moving goalposts so soon? You don’t seem to care about RFK any more.
The only 3rd party candidates in that poll with over 2% are RFK and West. In most states, neither are on the ballot. So the relevant poll results are head to head.
But keep trying to twist the results to explain Why This Is Bad News For Biden. Maybe you’ll land a job at the NYT.
Why would I?
You said you only care about the head to head poll numbers.
I want to know a single state where the election is actually head to head.
Can you not do that?
A lot of people are afraid Trump is going to win, and that’s motivating them to vote for Biden. The results you’re quoting support this.
I want Democrats to think Trump is going to win, otherwise they’ll stay home like they did in 2016.
Not quite. 60% said they don’t think Biden can do the job, not that Trump would win
Edit: read further down and yeah 6 in 10 said they think Trump will win, you right
Yeah there’s not much good news in there…
I agree things are bad, and I wish we had a better candidate than Biden.
But we don’t. Biden is the candidate, and he must win.
I just want to point out that it is a good thing if Democrats are afraid Biden won’t win. Overconfidence hurt Clinton in several states. Democrats are going to be talking about it, encouraging their friends to vote, shaming people for supporting Trump, and freaking out about another Trump presidency. We don’t want complacency.
This is like as a plane plunges into the ocean, the pilots making an announcement thanking passengers for putting their seatbelts on.
And I have zero idea why you’re still insisting Biden can’t be replaced
I could have sworn we got over that speed bump. A couple times really…
Edit:
Yeah. That was you
Sorry man. I dont think us repeating this again will help.
You’re gonna have to ask someone else for help