Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say President Joe Biden should withdraw from the presidential race and let his party nominate a different candidate, according to a new poll, sharply undercutting his post-debate claim that “average Democrats” are still with him even if some “big names” are turning on him.
The new survey by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, conducted as Biden works to salvage his candidacy two weeks after his debate flop, also found that only about 3 in 10 Democrats are extremely or very confident that he has the mental capability to serve effectively as president, down slightly from 40% in an AP-NORC poll in February.
The findings underscore the challenges the 81-year-old president faces as he tries to silence calls from within his own party to leave the race and tries to convince Democrats that he’s the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump. The poll was conducted mostly before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. It’s unclear whether the shooting influenced people’s views of Biden, but the small number of poll interviews completed after the shooting provided no early indication that his prospects improved.
They’re likely accurate. Anecdotal, but many of my very liberal friends have lost confidence in Biden’s ability to lead the Dems to victory, and many people I know who are ‘swing voters’ are convinced that Biden is senile. That’s not getting into the conservatives I know, who I would not regard as having relevant opinions. Furthermore, a number of sitting congressmembers of his own party have expressed that he should step down - which alone is a ruinous and public expression of a loss of confidence at the highest levels for Biden to win the campaign. It’s a millstone around his campaign’s neck, and even winning them back won’t remove it - the only thing that he can do to remove that weight from the Dem ticket is by stepping down himself.
Since the debate I haven’t spoken to a single left-leaning person who wants Biden to stay in or thinks he can win. Not one.
I was both until Congresscritters started coming out against him after the debate. I’m willing to accept that seeing him have a bad day - even a really fucking bad one - is not necessarily an indictment of his fitness to run a vigorous campaign, but I knew it was over once sitting Congressmembers were asking him publicly to step down. That’s… that’s lethal. Regardless of whether or not he’s fit to run a campaign.
I think it’s not impossible for him to win (though I was in full panic mode when Trump had an assassination attempt and I thought it might be a Dem behind the gun), but IF he does win, it will be wholly in spite of him being the candidate, and it will be an uphill fucking battle the whole way. He no longer advantages the Dem ticket - he’s a handicap.
Yeah I’ve also started trying to figure out, in the grand scheme of things, if there’s a scenario where replacing an incumbent would be more beneficial. Like, how bad would the polls have to get before the party stepped in and made an unfortunate but necessary decision? Losing all swing states? Losing Dem lean states? Losing solid blue states? Losing by double digits? Or maybe the candidate would have to get worse? What if he has a stroke in October? What if he dies in October? Is that how bad it would have to get?
The only silver lining I’m seeing right now is the 538 model calling for a Biden win (sorta), and it’s predicated on economic fundamentals which I just don’t think hold the line like they used to. I think the game has fundamentally changed, as has political typology, and that’s the reason he’s drowning in swing states.