I don’t really have a fantastic prediction, because I don’t feel like the major factors are really foreseeable at this point.
I think a big factor is what happens with Reddit and Twitter, since the Threadiverse and Mastodon are obvious alternatives.
Another is how well other alternatives, like Bluesky and Threads do.
I think that it’s hard to call those factors.
I doubt that Mastodon or the Threadiverse, at least, will die soon. I think that they’ve got enough mass that even without any major influx, they could keep going.
I don’t know about some of the other services. One ActivityPub-based system doing well doesn’t mean another will, and some have not a lot of userbase.
I don’t really have a fantastic prediction, because I don’t feel like the major factors are really foreseeable at this point.
I think a big factor is what happens with Reddit and Twitter, since the Threadiverse and Mastodon are obvious alternatives.
Another is how well other alternatives, like Bluesky and Threads do.
I think that it’s hard to call those factors.
I doubt that Mastodon or the Threadiverse, at least, will die soon. I think that they’ve got enough mass that even without any major influx, they could keep going.
I don’t know about some of the other services. One ActivityPub-based system doing well doesn’t mean another will, and some have not a lot of userbase.