Donald Trump is reportedly losing sleep, battling anxiety, and obsessing over his polling numbers as the GOP nominee hopes to hang his hat on any sign that he will return to the White House.
A campaign official told Axios that Trump is asking more questions and pushing his staff to work even more to ensure that he will come out ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris come Election Day.
“Trump’s anxiety is evident in his late-night and early morning calls to aides in which he peppers them with questions on how things are going—and whether they think he’ll win,” Axios reported.
He’s probably losing sleep over the fact that if he loses the election his best chance for staying out of prison is fleeing to Russia.
I mean he isn’t in prison now, and isn’t heading any closer to prison. Evergreen tweet.
Hooray for courts stacked with sycophants and partisans, and liberals enabling fascism because meaningfully opposing it would be uncivil.
There’s slim hope that Trump losing the election along with his viability as president or leader of the GOP would see his protections make way for consequences, but even that seems unlikely.
Wow, we actually have something in common
He should lose sleep from getting executed for treason, for handing the western world to Putin on a platter.
How the fuck is he not in prison? It’s as if the conviction on more than two dozen felonies (and that’s only the shit he is convicted of so far) and not suffer a single dollar for a fine or a minute in prison means the whole trial process meant nothing.
Well, you see, applying the law equally to everyone might make some rich criminals appear like they are criminals on account of the crimes they evidently committed and thus make them appear less worthy of holding the highest office in the country and nobody wants that, right? Gotta keep the election fair by letting rich people get away with their crimes until they can pardon themselves, right?
I have no idea why
Basically tied, Republican voters have better turn out, he’s cheating, his voters are intimidating would be voters and committing voter fraud
But at least the US just promised Canada that Trump isn’t a threat to democracy
I hope the Orange neo-Nazi bag of shit is stressing out.
It’s about effing time he gets to experience what he’s been doing to all of us.
Yeah that’s the good news.
Lack of sleep and obesity at that age can trigger heart attacks. God willing.
No. I want him to watch himself become irrelevant while being sentenced for his crimes. He can die or whatever in a prison cell, forgotten and penniless.
I feel like forgetting people like him is how we got to where we are now.
I hope a fucking meteor hits him. I hope his death is so cataclysmic that it cannot be denied that causality itself has orchestrated his demise. I hope his death is so violently spectacular that even Joel Osteen goes “Well, maybe we aught to look at the facts.”.
Do your best to make sure no one forgets Trump. Make sure people understand exactly what he represents.
I want him to have a stroke and a heart attack at the same time mid speech.
Between the vomitous word salad, shitting himself live on air during the debate, and swinging to music for the better part of an hour, it’d take whole minutes to tell he’d had an incident. Precious minutes
People need to go out and fucking vote, nothing is in the bag for Harris, especially since republicans want to legally contest every single fucking fair and free election. Traitorous losers
Kamala needs to go fire and brimgstone with her presidency so we don’t have to spend the next several decades years with every election being “maintain the status quo or become the fourth reich”
Dial back bush and Obama’s expansions of executive power. The office of the president isn’t supposed to be powerful enough that someone like trump can do so much damage.
At bare minimum she needs to halt the genocide in Palestine, have Netanyahu and co sent to The Hague, deport Elon Musk, send Trump to prison, nationalise SpaceX for a start.
And do SOMETHING about Gerrymandering. Anything. Mention it in an interview. Ask Congress to act. Withhold funding from egregious states.
That is only going to have a chance in hell at happening if she and a democratic majority in senate and house addresses the republican issue first and goes after, prosecutes, and convicts the traitors, foreign agents, and the corrupt.
Yeah I don’t think it has any chance of actually happening. Democratic voters will go to brunch and they will all just move further to the right.
She needs an attorney general with balls. I nominate Hillary Clinton.
I nominate Jack Smith.
Fuck no. The fuck is wrong with you.
We are only in this mess to begin with cause of her stupidity and fucking arrogance.
and no, this isnt some “omg u haet hilary cause u haet woman!” fucking lizard brain wanna be “alpha male” right wing bullshit.
Shes genuinely a bad candidate, for any position, She threw away the last election cause she couldnt even be bothered to campaign in several states she considered safe, instead spending time having sneaky-hidey meetings behind closed doors (and behind white noise generators to deal with anyones pesky over hearing what shes saying) with money and corporations, and I guarantee you they were not meetings in any way that benefited the average american, else they wouldnt have felt the need to have them all hush hush and behind white noise generators. If a Republican had secret meetings with money behind white noise generators the internet would lose its goddamn mind over it ffs!
and if that wasnt bad enough, shes a Republican. Sure, she calls herself a democrat, but shes a Republican. Shes not an openly racist, hate mongering, Putin dick sucking piece of shit like republicans today, shes a Republican from 30 years ago when they still hid behind flowery and coded language, and had the false appearance of amiable servants of the public good to anyone that didnt look too closely.
Keep Hillary, and Bill, far the fuck away from the goddamn white house.
And grab a 2 or 3 hour shift for virtual phone banking today and tomorrow.
And if you live in or next to a swing state. Knock doors for an hour. It’s fun, and you’ll hate yourself if the fascists win and all you did was shit post on the internet.
What if they want to vote for Trump? Should they still go out and vote?
Sure.
The mantra of “Everybody vote” is out there because it’s harder to contest, and the fact of the matter is when more people vote, Republicans lose more elections.
I hear there’s a monster truck show all day where they are, wherever that is. They have punch and pie.
If you believe in democracy, yes.
I mean… they have the right to but personally I would rather they didn’t
He’s stressing about having to face jail if he loses. So anyways…
I had some awesome oreo and dulce Gelato last night.
Good. You orange fuck. You rapist. Racist fucking shit stain asshole. I hope the rest of your sleeps are troubled. May the tightness in your neck grip ever harder in your final days. I hope you’re too much of a coward to commit suicide and you have to live with your actions and see your narcissistic collapse bring the house of cards down.
You’ve forced me to move my family to Germany because of the fascist movement you’ve brought to the US. You’ve had me doomscrolling since at least 2015. You’ve had me changing my travel plans checking flights out of Toronto in order to avoid flying from the US after your inauguration date so that my latino family will have no in-person interaction with any government agent from your regime despite their being citizens. You’ve fucking disrupted an entire world order due to your complicity with Duginism because of your insatiable greed and character flaws leading to Russian kompromat on you, or you’re just a piece of shit because you need the Russian money to keep coming.
You should be in jail at best, and facing a similar fate to Mussolini at worst. So fuck off with your sleepless nights you fucking weak minded piss poor excuse for a person.
Moving to Germany to avoid fascism is an incredible move.
It is incredible isn’t it? The Germans have seen first hand that some speech should not be free and they understand that the intolerant cannot be tolerated. Which is why they have the Brandmauer and there are talks to ban AfD. Trump should have never been allowed to run this time around, and if AfD is found to be undemocratic, they will be banned as well. 15% of the country may not like it, but that’s tough shit.
Their system is actually a modern parliamentary government where it’s not winner take all. Proportional representation with ranked choice voting is what the USA needs to move to. We need to get off the two party system, but the parties who benefit are the ones who make the change. Also our third parties are absolute dogshit. Green and Libertarian. So culturally the USA needs to field some better policies and candidates. The problem is the right wing is so powerful that the left cannot meaningfully put together a real competitive coalition. Even the democrats would be center right in most other developed countries. So yeah, fascism is coming to the USA, whether it comes in 2024, 2028, or 2032, it’s coming and hopefully it doesn’t take the rest of the world out with it. The EU needs to be prepared to lose the USA as a primary trading partner and as the head of NATO. This Russia problem we have doesn’t seem to be going away.
I just don’t want my kids getting drafted into some dumb ass fascist conflict. My hope would be that blue states resist when red state national guard is knocking on people’s doors and performing their dragnet deportation operation on anyone too dark a shade of brown. I just don’t see any of this ending well.
I would love to be wrong about all of this by the way. But I grew up in the south, and I’ve seen first hand how the majority feels and thinks about cities, immigrants, LGBTQIA+, marginalized groups, POC, etc.
Got called a nazi kraut my whole school career just for expressing pride in Lebkuchen or Christmas traditions or knowing a little bit of German despite being culturally American and speaking English as my native tongue. The USA has some serious cultural issues to reconcile, and I’m not sure a milquetoast centrist former prosecutor has the right formula to do it.
That’s assuming she wins. She loses, I guess I’m flying out of Canada in January prior to inauguration day.
I like the parallel to Musselini.
You come off as a pretty violent guy ngl
Ah yes, a family man who wanted a quiet life backed into leaving his country for a place his children might stand a modicum of a chance of having a normal life is the violent one. Not the fascists touting project 2025, turning the military on American citizens, sending red state national guard to blue states to round people up for camps, etc., but I suppose “legal” political violence is okay with you.
Yes, let’s all hug and get along with fascist rapist wannabe despots. Maybe we can make gingerbread houses together and sing kumbah-fucking-ya. Go suck a Re-tard’s dick.
They’re not violent. I am, though. Feel free to direct your anger at me.
Sure. Can I find you at the next Trump rally?
Lol ok snowflake.
I find I can bear his discomfort with extreme fortitude.
Thauts n’ prairs
I thought you said “pears” at first…and I’ll be honest, I laughed at that way harder than I probably should have…
Anything that weakens him before his second coup attempt is good in my book.
If this story is true then that actually gives me some hope that it isn’t as solid of a plan as I was assuming. If he’s stressed about polling then apparently it won’t be as simple to steal as some people made it seem.
I think he’s mostly shook by how bad the polls look ATM. Complacency is death, of course, but a remarkablely accurate poll in Iowa (pollsters name escapes me atm) picked Harris to flip Iowa. With the gap clearing the margin of error iirc. With a +8 Harris swing since September. If projections like that play out and if that +8 holds nationally Flordia and Texas might become toss ups.
He’ll have plenty of time to catch up on some Z’s in a prison cell.
Losing sleep over whether he’ll actually be sentenced or not.
It’s be really cool if he lost his freedom for all the crimes we know he’s committed…
Shit… I’d settle for the ones he’s been convicted of.
Well, I’ve been losing sleep and having anxiety attacks over the possibility that he might worm his way back into office again, so no sympathy
I’ve slept maybe 6 hours since Tuesday.
Just gonna white knuckle it till Tuesday.
Yeah same tbh. But also I don’t expect this shit to really wrap up one way or another in anything less than a week, and then who knows what Johnson will try to pull at the electoral vote count in December…
This thing needs to be a blow out to keep it out of the SC.
Kamala needs to end Tuesday dominantly. 5/7 swing states +Iowa. Its gotta be such that they can’t get one case alone to the SC that changes the results.
Are you telling me she needs a perfect 5/7
With rice
Well what happens if he wins? Surely your stress level won’t go down
I guess the house goes up for sale and I’m back on duo lingo for my Spanish/ Portuguese?
Unlike most lemmings, I have an actually target on my back, and have been doxxed for my political organizing. I know for a fact I’m in some databases used by fascists/ right-wingers to doxx left wing organizers. I’ve seen how weak Democrats and their voters are when it comes to standing up to power. And while I hated her with great vitriol, I realized how dependent we were on the acumen of players like Pelosi to just hold this shit together for the four years of Trump we already survived. I hold no hope for the weakness which has been demonstrated to be the 2024 Democratic party.
One thing that I’ve found with anxiety that can help is volunteering and other things that help dem turnout. It moves the needle a little and if nothing else it makes you feel productive and some more degree of agency besides just voting yourself
Can find some phone banks, canvasing, and text banks near you
Also another small thing that can also help is reminding and encourage any dem leaning friends, family, etc. to go out and vote. Helps more than you’d think
Yep. And I think he will win too. I’ve been playing with the ABC/538 and Harris’ chances just seem so slim to me.
I just want to see something reassuring at this point.
Reassurance is women are out-voting men by 10pts in early voting.
Fully 35% of black voters say they plan to vote on election day alone.
538 gave 59% odda GOP to take the Senate in 2022.
Not only do these polls have a margin of error, but they are only predictive insofar as their likely voter models are accurate, and registration volatility and GOP crossover support for Harris means they likely aren’t.
There is no evidence that the low propensity incel bro vote is churning out as hoped.
I happen to live in a Republican controlled district in one of the swing states. The people who are enthusiastic about Trump are extremely enthusiastic. As in, flying Trump-Vance flags in their truck down a major thoroughfare.
And, the Muslim population here may very well not be bluffing and vote for Trump instead of Harris - or simply not vote at all. The Israel-Gaza issue is HUGE here.
Unless our major city pulls through for us, Trump will win our state.
The odds are also stacked against Harris based on how electoral votes are counted. If you ask me who I think will win the popular vote, I think Harris will win. It’s just that the game is so stacked, and Republican controlled regions are, well, making it hard to vote.
Did I mention SCOTUS is not impartial?
Any Muslim voting for Trump fully deserves the shit that will rain down on their countrymen if Trump wins. That’s literally the dumbest thing they could be doing, even worse than not voting or voting for “Free Palestine”.
“Any Muslim”? “Countrymen?” “Dumbest thing”?
It feels like “Trust me I know what’s best for you, foreigner” vibes.
And that seems to be a theme in the Democratic Party. “Vote for me, the other guy is worse” but then just maintain the status quo. But how are they representing interests of their voting bloc?
Don’t get me wrong, I’d vote for a literal flaming pile of shit over Trump.
Does the states name rhyme with bitch again?
Republican voting is up in the places it matters last time I checked.
Republican early voting is up, yet early voting numbers split is in line with 2020. That’s not necessarily a good sign for Republicans.
We’re not going to really know fuck about shit till Tuesday.
Nope, but here we are
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You’re going to see more registered Republicans crossing over to vote for Harris than perhaps any Democrat has previously received.
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More are voting early, but that’s to be expected given Trump learned from the 2020 mistake of dissuading his voters from early voting. It doesn’t mean greater turnout; it just means the same voters Trump had before are voting earlier.
You’re going to see more registered Republicans crossing over to vote for Harris than perhaps any Democrat has previously received.
I’m fully aware thats the assumption people are making. Its not clear how good or bad of an assumption that is. Its also not clear what damage Harris has done with Democrats relationship to the Arab/ Muslim/ Anti-genocide Democrats. Two weeks ago this thing was in the bag for Trump to the point he was just dancing on stage cus he knew he didn’t need to do anything else to win. Then he had a Nazi rally.
Pretending like this thing is in anyway a shoe-in for Harris seems to be oblivious to the facts on the ground. She campaigned extremely poorly and made bad strategic choices that took her from heading towards a blue-wave the likes of which we’ve never seen to now, a blue whimper. Look at how Harris is doing relative to down-ballot Democrats (538) (D’s left, R’s right, senate where possible, house where not):
Pennsylvania:
Harris 47.6, Trump, 47.9: -0.3 to team D. Casey 49, McCormick 46: +3.0 to team D. Harris delta: -3.3
Michigan:
Harris 47.9, Trump 47.1: +0.8 to team D. Slotkin 49, Rogers 47: +2.0 to team D. Harris delta: -1.2
Georgia:
Harris 47, Trump 48.5: -1.5 to team D. Bishop 47, West 44: +3 to team D. Harris delta: -4.5
Arizona:
Harris 46.5, Trump 49: -2.5 to team D. Kelly 48.6, Masters 47.1: +1.5 to team D. Harris delta: -3
North Carolina:
Harris 47, Trump 48.5: -1.5 to team D. Beasley 45.2, Budd 49.5: -4.3 to team D. Harris delta: 3.2
Nevada:
Harris 47.1, Trump 47.9: -.9 to team D. Cortez Masto 45.9, Kaxakt 47.3: -1.4 to team D. Harris delta: 0.5
Wisconsin:
Harris, 48.1, Trump 47.4: +0.6 to team D. Baldwin 49, Hovde 48: +1 to team D. Harris delta: -.4
Averages out to about ~ -1.25
So in general, Harris is under performing “the average Democrat” in the swing states by about 1.25 points. Keep in mind, Harris was leading or damn near leading at one point in most of those races, and was on track for more substantial gains going into the convention.
She may win in-spite of those major mis-steps, but its not a forgone conclusion that she will win either. Also, it still has to get through all the states, the supreme court if that comes up, and then finally through the certification.
I think you’re giving Trump far too much credit that he was dancing on stage because he had nothing to do and coasting to victory and that wasn’t just an obvious sign of dementia. Let’s be honest, here, the polls have been pretty much tied and within the margin of error this entire time. So I find this to be a bit speculative and expecting more than Trump than he is really capable of.
I’m nowhere saying this is a shoe-in. I am just explicitly responding and providing context to, “republican voting is up in places it matters”
I also disagree that she campaigned poorly. I think she campaigned exceptionally given the time she had and the needle she needed to thread with both distancing from Biden but also citing that the economy is, in fact, improving phenomenally on the world stage and post pandemic. To pick up the mantle in three months and run as well as she had? The Democrats have honestly not been this united since 2008 maybe, and that speaks to the fact that she brought onboard 5 veteran Obama campaign staffers. Regardless of the outcome, this has been historic.
Sounds like your main gripe is really her policy on Gaza, which unfortunately during election season you need to get the votes needed to cross the finish-line… Which means catering to the Jewish votes in Pennsylvania perhaps more so than the Uncommitted voters in Michigan by the nature of electoral votes. You saw that Elon Musk is spending millions in PA with attack ads with opposite messages targeting BOTH the (larger) Jewish community and the Muslim community in PA — yes? She literally has no choice but to toe the line between these two groups.
Moreover, I want to know at what specific point in time in polling anyone had confidence we were heading for a blue wave when polls are all we know?
The Iowa poll which has been dead-on in terms of gauging turnout in 2016 and 2020 compared to nearly any other pollster just gave Harris a +3 in Iowa. A +3 in Iowa. Keep that in mind.
If we’re going to go into more speculation as you’re suggesting we do, then I can point to 2022 and show that the Red Wave turned into a Red Mirage. Why? Simply: Pollsters did not account for the over-performance of Democrats post-Roe Reversal. Polling volatility given registration numbers and cross-over from Republicans is very volatile right now. It is entirely possible we see that same over-performance again, and thus a red wave turns into a blue mist, wave, or tsunami even given that Platinum-tier Iowa poll. Don’t forget 538 had 59:41 odds of GOP getting the Senate.
In the end who knows and I’ll hope for the best and expect the worst. But given the circumstances I think the Harris campaign has done great. I don’t think we as laypeople could do better. Easy to throw peanuts from the sidelines.
just an obvious sign of dementia
Yeah we just don’t know. The whole campaign seemed to have gone into autopilot at that point, because they were doing quite well in the polls. My read was they went into “do no harm mode”. Then they did a Nazi rally which kind of blew up that notion.
“republican voting is up in places it matters”
Which it was on my last check in NC and GA. Republican receipts were up a couple percent points in NC and Harris canceled Ad buys. The tea leaf read was that the campaign was throwing in the towel to do damage control in MI.
I also disagree that she campaigned poorly.
That’s fine, but we’re not going to agree on this. Harris went from a 38 to 50 in a like, 4 weeks. That’s meteoric. Not good, not great, shocking. And that happened in the weeks prior to the DNC, when the assumptions we had about the candidate was her platform from 2020. At the DNC we saw her platform an anti-abortion Republican in the slot that was for a Palestinian Democrat from GA. She made no effort to fix this, and its probably going to have cost her MI. Since about a week after the convention, as she continued to step right, her polling started out and went into serious decline. It became clear she’ wasn’t going to be trying to gather the disaffected votes of Democrats to win this. She wanted “Cheney” Republicans (keeping in mind that Cheney lost her primary, as an incumbent, with only 27% of the vote.). Only in the past 3 days have we had any signal that Harris still has a chance in this race. She ran a teerrrrrrrrrible campaign post convention. Just straight up. Had she stepped to the left and worked off of the things she campaigned on in 2016, had she distanced herself from Israel Gaza, I think her numbers from before the convention would have continued to increase and that she’d be at about 54-56% nationally right now. The facts are on my side for this one. It does us no good to pretend that things were some other way than they actually were. We can just plot her polling over time and see she dropped the ball. Like you can-not pretend that a candidate who had been dropping in polling for the 8 weeks prior to an election is “crushing it”.
her policy on Gaza, which unfortunately during election season you need to get the votes needed to cross the finish-line… Which means catering to the Jewish votes in
What makes you think Harris would lose any Jewish voters with a stance against genocide? If you are going to make that claim, you need to back it up with evidence. All that the Arab and Muslim community has asked for is a seat at the table for the party that supposes to represent them, and they were refused. If Harris’ loses MI, this is why, and its on her head. There is no evidence to suggest there is any cost to holding Israel accountable when its already in violation of US law. You don’t get to just speculate that things were some way you wished they were. What we can defintivelty say is that Harris has lost the support of the Muslim community in Michigan and that very well may cost her the election.
Harris a +3 in Iowa. A +3 in Iowa. Keep that in mind.
+3 in Iowa is fucking wild. I generally go by aggregates not individual pollsters. The only way Harris does this is with a landslide of women voters who are not showing up in most polls. We are seeing women voting at an anomaly level, but we’re also seeing republican voting up. Nate silver says don’t read anything into early voting, but also, its a post-covid world.
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Nate Silver left 538, but he is still hosting the Monte Carlo model at the Silver Bulletin. That model is putting it right around 50-50 for Trump win vs Harris win. That’s not a polling average… That’s the result of playing a few million elections where the results are based on the current polling average.
Wow, 50/50 split. Bold prediction, Nate!
Nate has been wrapped up in the betting markets, and I’m afraid he’s not the same Nate Silver from 2008.
Okay and on Election Day 2016 he had it at 60-70% Clinton when I went out to vote. He was very wrong
He was very wrong
If everytimw you say something has a 30% chance of happening, it never happens, then your models are wrong because they should say zero percent. If you say something has a 30% chance of happening and it happens, that doesn’t mean you were wrong.
It’s shocking how many people don’t understand percentages.
I do. At 60%, it’s drawing 3/5 cards. I wouldn’t take that chance. At 70%, it’s 3/4. There’s always a chance of the 1/4, sure. But I expect it to happen.
That’s part of why I’m so uncomfortable right now. I wouldn’t take a coin flip.
I wouldn’t take that chance.
Not taking the chance isn’t the same as it never happening. Speaking as a decently experienced poker player, you can understand your odds, and make the right call, and still lose because of it. It doesn’t mean you were wrong, it’s just statistics.
I mean, I played competitive LCG before. I completely understand that it’s possible. I have definitely taken and lost on a 60% chance. It’s just not a risk I would take.
And I maintain that he was wrong. I don’t think it was a 70% chance. By the time I got back from voting, he had revised it closer to 55-60%. That seems more accurate to me. I think he underestimated Trump.
Ugh for the billionth time, he wasn’t wrong. That is not how statistics works. He gave a percentage chance. That’s it. If I say there is a 70% chance Clinton wins, and she loses, that doesn’t mean I was wrong.
I think he was wrong. I think he underestimated Trump. I don’t think it was 70/30.
He had it at 70/30, when the poll/pundit environment was giving Hillary 95% chances.
He gave much more realistic odds than most any pundit of that cycle.
Well good thing statistics aren’t based on “what that one random guy on the internet thinks”
I mean, at the time he had a lot of inputs for his model and I have almost none, but his are also just what he thinks.
I mean, at the time he had a lot of inputs for his model and I have almost none, but his are also just what he thinks.
I think it was right around 35% as you say. Unlikely, but not impossible for Trump to win. If Trump hit a one out of three lucky shot, that should be somewhat surprising, but not too very surprising.
Anyhow, he’s saying this one is an even coin flip.
Yeah, all these people are acting like at 2:1 odds are some kind of impossible situation still to this day.
He hadn’t counted your vote yet.
Love how lemmy just toxically down-votes things that don’t agree with their bias.
We also downvote stupid comments. Here, have another.
… isn’t the downvote button explicitly meant to voice your disagreement with something?
I don’t understand why people complain about downvotes. If you don’t want to see them, join an instance where they’re disabled (like mine).
A lot of people try to say you should only down vote poor quality comments that don’t contribute to the discussion.
If every one downvotes opinions they disagree with you just have a homogeneous echo chamber.
Personally, I don’t think there’s any point complaining about it. You can’t hold back that tide.
Honestly I think users on Lemmy are from a very narrow demographic, and to be blunt a lot of users just don’t have a very broad life experience. That being the case I think anyone should expect to have some opinions which are unpopular with other lemmy users.
Its not that they “disagree” with it per se, its that they want it to not be the case.
Down voting statements of fact because they make you feel uncomfortable is what is actually happening. If they were willing to step in and make or defend an argument; thats a separate case. Lemmy just knee-jerk downvotes things that it doesn’t want to be true.
