House Democrats have begun internal discussions about how to deal with the prospects of a chaotic situation: The possibility that Speaker Kevin McCarthy could lose his job in an unprecedented vote on the floor.
While no decisions have been made, some of the party’s moderates are privately signaling they’d be willing to cut a deal to help McCarthy stave off a right-wing revolt – as long as the speaker meets their own demands.
Publicly, Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has not weighed in on how he’d want his members to manage a challenge to McCarthy’s speakership, saying it’s hypothetical at this point. But privately, Jeffries has counseled his members to keep their powder dry, according to multiple sources, a recognition it’s better for Democrats to keep their options open as the government funding fight plays outs.
Democrats and moderate Republicans might eventually come to an agreement o the budget, but if they do it will come at the expense of McCarthy’s speakership. The Freedom Caucus has been quite clear that McCarthy has that job at their pleasure, and can eject him whenever they want. The only reason they haven’t is that they have no clue what comes after that. But if McCarthy passes something with the help of Democrats, the Freedom Caucus will have to do it anyway, and see what happens.
During the next Speaker vote, Jeffries might find a moderate Republican willing to take the job (and actually negotiate with Biden), and build up a small coalition of a few dozen Republicans who would support that guy, and then steer as many Democratic votes as he could toward that person. Once there are a majority of members backing a Speaker who is not on Matt Gaetz’s leash, the Freedom Caucus no longer has its outsized power and is relegated to the sideshow again.
Honestly, this is what’s going to happen.
The freedom caucus is going to piss away their leverage because they don’t have the votes to get one of their nutters up there, the dems aren’t going to help them, and “moderate” republicans are smart enough to realize that the freedom caucus is giving shit loads of power to the house minority party.
The worst part of this, for republicans, is that these nut jobs have either never learned that sometimes in brinksmanship ya gotta grab the other person and jump off the cliff, just to prove that you will. Or they’re perfectly okay with jumping. it’s like they took this as their script because, hey it worked!
The speculative deal would likely include 2 parts:
Pass a bipartisan spending bill with concessions to the Democratic party.
When the Freedom Caucus comes for McCarthy’s seat, Democrats vote to protect his speakership.
I don’t think there are any moderate Republicans who would actually want to be a bipartisan Speaker.