• tacosanonymous
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    52
    arrow-down
    3
    ·
    edit-2
    8 months ago

    If there’s one thing I’ve learned in the last ten years it is that I’ll never trust a political poll.

  • YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    30
    arrow-down
    5
    ·
    edit-2
    8 months ago

    I think we will have a three way run for President between Biden ( D ), Haley ( R ), Trump ( I ) in November of 2024. Trump will be disqualified in most states preventing him from winning the Republican nomination. He will run independently splitting the right wing votes. Biden goes on to win 45 states.

    • Everythingispenguins@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      35
      arrow-down
      5
      ·
      edit-2
      8 months ago

      Nope there is no way this is going to happen. So Trump’s eligibility is going to hit the US Supreme Court. It is litigation on the Constitution itself with more or less zero case law around it. This is the kind of thing that every lawyer dreams of putting their name on. It will hit the US Supreme Court and they will take it. So he will be either eligible or ineligible in all 50 states it will not be peace meal. piecemeal

      Now that doesn’t mean that there won’t be a major independent candidate for some other reasons, but not for this reason.

        • shalafi@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          4
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          8 months ago

          Just because they’re right-wing does not make them beholden to Trump. They’ve made some solid decisions lately.

          • ivanafterall@kbin.social
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            6
            ·
            8 months ago

            Not being sarcastic, but also don’t follow every Supreme Court case: what do you view as the encouragingly solid decisions? I did see one civil rights-related case that seemed to go positively a few weeks back.

      • YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        17
        arrow-down
        4
        ·
        8 months ago

        The Supreme Court cannot issue a constitutional amendment, only the States or Congress can do that. It’s going to be extremely difficult to claim the 14th Amendment doesn’t apply to Trump based on the language and the fact that Confederates were barred from office without being convicted. The Supreme Court would be in breach of power to ignore what the Consitution says.

        • Fedizen@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          8
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          8 months ago

          The supreme court already rewrote the college loan law. I think they know they can’t be held accountable and have little respect for the laws or constution beyond those that align with their ideology

          • YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            3
            arrow-down
            2
            ·
            8 months ago

            A law is different than a Consitutional Amendment. They can’t rewrite it and it’s obvious what the Amendment was put in place for.

      • Moobythegoldensock
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        8
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        8 months ago

        And they will say that regardless of the Civil War precedents say, a court needs to determine whether he participated in the insurrection via a conviction.

      • ShakeThatYam@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        6
        ·
        8 months ago

        It would be pretty hypocritical given that a third of SCOTUS believes in the independent state legislature theory which pretty much lets states legislatures do whatever they want with regards to federal elections. But, that’s probably not going to stop them siding with Trump.

    • 2Xtreme21@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      18
      ·
      8 months ago

      Would be awesome, but I don’t see it happening. This man has so much support still— especially in the high levels of state government— it’s disgusting. Republicans are still massively supportive of Trump and he’s nearly a shoe-in for the R nomination.

      • NounsAndWords@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        12
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        8 months ago

        I think the reasoning above is based on the idea that he will be actually disqualified and not on the ballots as a convicted felon (at least I assume that’s the “he’s disqualified” angle here).

        Although, sadly I think it’s unlikely to happen before the election, and even if it did I wouldn’t be in the slightest surprised for Republican states to just outright change whatever laws they need to (or just ignore the law) to put him on the state ballots.

        • uphillbothways@kbin.social
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          18
          ·
          edit-2
          8 months ago

          Stop spreading misinformation. Being a convicted felon does not prevent someone from running for or being elected president. It’s specifically being involved with an insurrection, whether convicted or not, that disqualifies him from the office. Felonies have nothing to do with it.

          From the US Constitution:

          Fourteenth Amendment Equal Protection and Other Rights

          Section 3 Disqualification from Holding Office
          No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

        • SkyezOpen@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          5
          ·
          8 months ago

          I just realized even if he is disqualified, a shitload of people are going to write him in anyway and hand biden the win.

    • Kbin_space_program@kbin.social
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      8
      ·
      edit-2
      8 months ago

      A hard-core blible thumping Trumper is speaker in congress. Unfortunately for everyone’s sanity, he’s not going anywhere except hopefully into a max security prison.

    • dhork@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      8
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      8 months ago

      Trump will be disqualified in most states preventing him from winning the Republican nomination.

      I doubt this really happens. Trump may only be disqualified in a handful of states which he would have lost anyway, and even if that happens I wouldn’t put it past Republicans to ignore it and nominate him anyway.

      They might even declare the whole thing unlawful interference on the part of the Biden administration, and send their own electors from those states again. Who’s gonna stop them? The Supreme Court?

        • dhork@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          4
          ·
          8 months ago

          An interesting theory, we’ll see if it stands up to the scrutiny of the Supreme Court. We know how ethical and even-handed that group is in interpreting the law.

    • Ghostalmedia@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      7
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      8 months ago

      Removing Trump from the ballots will go to Trump’s Supreme Court. That won’t work.

      Trump will be the republican nominee unless hell freezes over. That fucker will run from jail if he has to. Becoming president is his only way out of many of his DoJ cases.

      • YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        6
        arrow-down
        2
        ·
        8 months ago

        The Supreme Court will have a hard time defending Trump in that case. The 14th Amendment Section 3 is solid and gives Congress the ability to allow him on the ballot with a 2/3 vote.

  • Octavio@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    6
    ·
    7 months ago

    Yeah. I would expect an insane conspiracy theorist to appeal to redhats and not normal people.

  • AutoTL;DR@lemmings.worldB
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    1
    ·
    8 months ago

    This is the best summary I could come up with:


    “With minority and younger voters seeming intrigued, Kennedy, for now, enjoys the kind of demographic support his charismatic father and uncles generated decades ago,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a release.

    Kennedy, an environmental lawyer and prominent anti-vaccine activist, was running in the Democratic primaries against Biden until last month, when he declared himself an independent after struggling to make inroads against the incumbent.

    Former Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), a strong progressive and Kennedy’s original campaign manager, notably left his position just days after Kennedy announced he was switching affiliation.

    Politico reported on Wednesday that Kennedy has been receiving donations from former Trump donors at a much higher rate than from former Biden donors, possibly signaling the risk for Republicans with his candidacy.

    Other polls have found that Kennedy may hurt Trump more than Biden in a general election, including a USA Today/Suffolk University poll from last month that found Kennedy costs Trump what would be a narrow lead in a hypothetical race.

    The Quinnipiac poll found that adding progressive activist Cornel West, who is also running as an independent, for a four-way race, leaves Biden with a narrower lead than he had in the three-way race.


    The original article contains 357 words, the summary contains 200 words. Saved 44%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!

    • dhork@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      8
      ·
      edit-2
      8 months ago

      “With minority and younger voters seeming intrigued, Kennedy, for now, enjoys the kind of demographic support his charismatic father and uncles generated decades ago,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a release.

      Tim Malloy just be a distant Kennedy cousin or something, because this take is extremely generous. RFK Jr has the charisma of a plastic bag. The only thing he shares with his dad is his name.

      And you would think Junior would want to steer clear of running for President, given what happened to his dad when he ran.