3 charts that signal what might happen if Trump loses to Harris.
  • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
    107·
    2 months ago

    Chart looks scary when you put it like this:

    But it’s not “24% of Republicans”.

    It’s “14% of voters overall, and of THAT number, 24% are Republicans.”

    So 24% of 14% is 3.36% of all voters, Republicans, think Trump should overthrow the election.

    • enkers@sh.itjust.works
      121·
      2 months ago

      I think either you’re misunderstanding the data, or I am, because it does indeed seem to be 24% of Republicans according to the source:

      Most Americans (81%) disagree with the statement, “if Donald Trump is not confirmed as the winner of the 2024 election, he should declare the results invalid and do whatever it takes to assume his rightful place as president,” compared with 14% who agree.

      Around one-quarter of Republicans (24%) agree with the statement, compared with 13% of independents and only 5% of Democrats who say the same. Republicans who hold a favorable view of Trump are more likely to agree than Republicans who hold an unfavorable view of him (29% vs. 6%).

      If the 24% was the portion of Republicans out of the 14% who agreed, who would the other 76% be?

      • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
        7·
        2 months ago

        You might be right, I was thinking that 24% of Republicans HAD to be larger than 14% overall, but breaking it down:

        Republicans in 2020 were 74,223,975 votes out of 158,429,631 cast. 46.8% of all votes cast.

        If 24% of them want to turn the election to Trump, regardless of who wins, that would be 17,813,754 votes or 11% of votes overall.

        • enkers@sh.itjust.works
          3·
          2 months ago

          That’s honestly an excellent sanity check on the poll. I did take a brief look at the methodology table, and there were some interesting numbers in there:

          [Polled respondent reported political affiliation:]

          Republican: 1603
          Independent: 1544
          Democrat: 1720
          Other/Don’t know: 485

          As an outside observer, whenever I’ve watched US elections, it’s never been obvious that there have been that many independent voters. It did make me wonder if these are mostly strategic voters who shift their allegiance on election day, or if the MSM simply never accurately conveys just how many independent voters there are.

          • nilloc@discuss.tchncs.deEnglish
            2·
            2 months ago

            Wheee I live independent is actually undeclared. During a primary vote, you have to declare which ballot you’ll be voting on and then afterward, visit a table to have your undeclared status restored.

            During a regular election everyone gets the same ballot and no declarations take place. Your just vote for whomever you want.

    • geekwithsoulEnglish
      7·
      2 months ago

      It’s still a quarter of those who identify as Republicans.

      I don’t even recognize this country anymore.

  • d00phy@lemmy.worldEnglish
    2·
    2 months ago

    Couple things stood out:

    5% of Democrats thought Trump should ignore a loss and do whatever it takes to take power!?

    The article points out that 60-something percent of Republicans believe the Trump campaign over most other news sources regarding stories about Trump. I didn’t see where it pointed that a seemingly higher number of Democrats believe the Harris campaign!

    Maybe I read the graph wrong, but all of that is pretty troubling news!

    • abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us
      1·
      2 months ago

      5% of Democrats

      Poll says it’s from approx 5,000 folks, and approx a quarter of those (or 1250) agree with the statement overall.

      So the 5% breakdown is from there, so that puts it at around 60 or so.

      Out of these, I can imagine that the breakdown is as follows - vast majority read the question or answer box wrong and checked the wrong box - similar with what happened with https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/08/35-of-37-economists-said-trump-was-wrong-the-other-two-misread-the-question/

      The next largest group would be folks who are Republicans who mistakenly checked off the Dems box.

      I suppose there might be one or two might be Dems who genuinely agree with the original statement (they’re super conservative Dems that have one major issue that they strongly disagree with Harris/Biden on, or they’re very young voters who believe themselves to identify with the Dem party but want to vote for the celebrity without really considering the issues - let alone understanding what’s at stake)

      In this case they probably also overoptimistically interpret the original quote, “he should declare the results invalid and do whatever it takes to assume his rightful place as president” as implying that the use of non-violence and legal methods as being sufficient.

      More likely though, there are zero of the above, and the remainder are just Republicans who managed to troll the poll.